Research On The Spatial Spillover Effect Of Trade Facilitation Of Countries Along The Belt And Road To China’s Agricultural Export Trade

With the steady progress of the Belt and Road Initiative,the export volume of agricultural products between China and countries along the Belt and Road has been increasing,and the Belt and Road region has become an important growth point of China’s agricultural export trade.At present,the adjustment effect of tariff reduction on trade is weak,and trade facilitation has become a new way to promote trade growth.In order to promote agricultural trade with countries along the "One Belt and One Road",China takes improving trade facilitation as an important point of strength.With the evolution and development of economic globalization and the theory of "new economic geography",China’s agricultural exports to a country are not only affected by the trade facilitation level of the trade partner country,but also affected by the trade facilitation level of the neighboring countries.Based on this,it is necessary to explore the spatial spillover effect of trade facilitation on agricultural exports from a spatial perspective,and fully reveal the role of trade facilitation on China’s agricultural exports.Based on panel data,the global principal component analysis method was used to estimate the trade facilitation level of China and 52 countries along the Belt and Road,and a spatial econometric model was established to study the spatial spillover effect of trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road on China’s agricultural exports.The main findings are as follows:(1)China’s exports of agricultural products to the countries along the Belt and Road are characterized by steady growth,increasing trade deficit year by year,high regional concentration and single market structure.(2)Although the trade facilitation level of countries along the Belt and Road shows an increasing trend year by year,there are obvious differences between countries and regions,and the overall level is low.(3)There is a significant spatial positive correlation between China’s agricultural exports to countries along the Belt and Road and trade facilitation.(4)Trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road has a positive direct effect on China’s agricultural exports,and if the spatial spillover is not taken into account,the influence of trade facilitation will be overestimated.(5)Trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on China’s agricultural export trade,and China’s agricultural export trade to countries along the Belt and Road also has a positive spatial spillover effect.Among the first-level indicators,government regulatory environment and infrastructure construction have significant positive spatial spillover effect on China’s agricultural export trade.(6)Compared with developed countries,trade facilitation in developing countries has more significant positive spatial spillover effect on China’s agricultural export trade.In view of this,specific suggestions are put forward for further expanding the scale of China’s agricultural exports:(1)dig deep market demand,strengthen export guidance and broaden export structure.(2)Enhance the international competitiveness of China’s agricultural exports,and actively respond to various technical barriers to trade.(3)Attach importance to the spatial spillover effect of trade facilitation on China’s agricultural exports.(4)Pay attention to the heterogeneity of countries along the Belt and Road and give full play to the role of trade facilitation.