| Due to the negative impact of trade protectionism and the global novel coronavirus pandemic,free trade has been hit hard,the world economic recovery has been bumpy,and economic globalization is evolving toward regional economic integration.The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is a typical example of regional economic integration.Its formal implementation will greatly promote more trade flows among countries and bring the regional and global economy back to the track of development.In the pattern ofChina’s foreign trade,the trade scale of mechanical and electrical products has long ranked first.The RCEP region has a large population,high economic activity,and broad trade space.With the gradual implementation of the rules of the agreement,the scale of trade in mechanical and electrical products between China and its partners in the region is expected to increase,but problems such as unbalanced economic development and imperfect infrastructure among the partners may become obstacles.Therefore,studying the potential of trade in mechanical and electrical products between China and RCEP partners,It is of great significance to seek new breakthroughs in trade with partner members.By using literature analysis method,this paper analyzes the import and export status of mechanical and electrical products between China and RCEP partner countries from 2008 to 2021,starting from the basic concepts of mechanical and electrical products,trade potential,trade efficiency and international trade theories,and aiming at trade scale,product category structure,market structure,trade complementarity and competitiveness.The research found that there are three practical problems:too high product clustering,too concentrated market distribution,and intensified competition with ASEAN in processing trade.Based on the theoretical basis of gravity model,the stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model are constructed respectively to study the influence degree of natural factors and human factors on the scale of trade.Frontier4.1 regression results show that bilateral GDP as a natural factor has the most significant effect on trade flow,while bilateral liner connectivity index as a human factor has the greatest impact on trade efficiency.Then,the panel data of bilateral trade volume of mechanical and electrical products from 2008 to 2021 is used to calculate the trade efficiency of mechanical and electrical products.The analysis results show that:from the perspective of countries,there is a significant difference in trade efficiency value.China and Malaysia have the highest efficiency,and maintain long-term high trade efficiency with Japan and South Korea.From the perspective of annual average change,the trade efficiency of mechanical and electrical products was relatively stable in the past 14 years,basically maintaining around the level of 0.32.Furthermore,the average trade efficiency of 2021 is used to calculate the current trade potential.It is found that the trade potential value of a country presents a three-tier tier,and the higher the trade potential value,the lower the expansion space of a country.Based on the existing problems and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to expand dialogue among partner members,increase quality supply of mechanical and electrical products,and avoid market trade risks,in order to promote the continuous increase of the scale of mechanical and electrical trade between China and RCEP partner countries. |
