| Today,the world economy is undergoing a profound restructuring,and the outbreak of the new crown virus in early 2020 has severely affected companies around the world.According to data,460,000 companies nationwide announced shutdowns or closures in the first quarter of 2020.Therefore,strengthening the early warning of financial risks and preventing them effectively are not only necessary for the "quality development" of companies,but also for the "sustainable operation" of survival.Based on this background,this paper selects company S as the research object and establishes an early warning system for financial risks by using the improved efficacy coefficient method.Firstly,the background and significance of this paper are explained,and the research idea of this paper is determined by summarizing and sorting out the research results of financial early warning;and a brief overview of the theory and method of financial early warning system is given to lay down a certain theoretical basis for the establishment of the early warning system.Secondly,the risks of Company S are identified from the financial level(operation level,financing level,investment level)and non-financial level(internal management level,industry development level),and the necessity of establishing an early warning system for financial risks of Company S is pointed out in view of the current early warning status of Company S.Finally,four sets of indicators reflecting corporate profitability,operation,debt servicing,and development capacity in 20 quarters from 2017 to 2021 were selected,and a financial early warning indicator system was established using a modified efficacy coefficient method to analyze the possible risks of Company S and take effective improvement measures to ensure the long-term sustainable development of the company.The results of the study show an improvement in both the pooled and composite scores for S corporations and an overall reduction in the financial risk rating.The scores of each indicator set: profitability score fluctuates in a downward trend,and profitability is weakening;operating capacity score is the fastest growing,but the score is relatively low,and the operating capacity is seriously insufficient;solvency score decreases continuously,and the overall solvency is insufficient;development capacity maintains a high score,and the possibility of risk is expected to be low.In view of the above risk problems,this paper proposes the improvement measures of alarm scheduling and the design and suggestions of the guarantee measures for the operation of S Company’s financial warning system from the aspects of guarantee measures,accounts receivable management,inventory management and cost control,hoping to play a certain role in guiding the good operation and development of S Company in the future. |
