Application Of Financial Risk Early Warning Model Based On Efficacy Coefficient Method

The country is based on agriculture,and agriculture takes planting as the first.As a national strategic and basic core industry,seed industry is the foundation to promote the long-term development of agriculture,ensure food security and maintain social stability.The CPC Central Committee attaches great importance to the development of the seed industry.Since 2011,it has issued a series of policies to vigorously support the seed industry to become bigger and stronger.China’s seed industry reform has made great achievements and the development momentum is good.With the accelerating process of marketization and the deepening degree of opening to the outside world,multinational seed industry giants have poured into China’s seed industry market,bringing advanced R & D technology and management experience to domestic seed industry enterprises,but also exerting great pressure on their development.The adjustment of capital structure and industrial structure of domestic seed enterprises can not keep up with the changes of the market,and they are facing more and more severe financial risks.The establishment of financial early warning model can monitor and predict the financial operation status of enterprises,send risk signals as soon as possible before the arrival of financial risks,and ensure the operation safety of enterprises to the greatest extent.The f seed industry company selected in this paper is the first listed company in China’s seed industry,which is very representative in the whole industry.Based on the above background,the article first combs the relevant research on financial risk early warning and financial risk of seed industry enterprises,and determines the main research methods and ideas,which lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent construction of application models.Secondly,taking F company as the case object,this paper expounds the current industry development status,introduces the company’s organizational structure,industrial layout and operation status,and analyzes the potential financial risks of F seed industry company from the internal and external environment.This paper starts from the fourth chapter to build the financial risk early warning model of F company.According to the financial statement data published by F company from 2016 to 2020,and in combination with the industry characteristics,22 alternative indicators are selected from the four dimensions of financing,investment,operation and profit distribution risk.After screening through the Pearson correlation coefficient method and removing the indicators with high correlation,the financial risk early warning indicator system of F company is constructed.The entropy method is used to calculate the weight of the selected financial indicators.After determining the industry standard value,the efficiency coefficient method is used to calculate the financial risk early warning score of F company from 2016 to 2020.Determine the early warning level of the company’s financial risks,analyze the early warning results and put forward countermeasures.Finally,in order to ensure the smooth operation of the company’s financial risk early warning work,the corresponding security countermeasures are put forward.