Research On Identification,evaluation And Control Of Supply Chain Risk Of Agricultural Machinery Products

With the large-scale management of land and the improvement of the degree of mechanization in China,and the support of a series of agricultural machinery promotion and subsidy policies of the government,the production and manufacture of agricultural machinery products have been widely concerned.After more than ten years of sustainable development,China has become the world’s largest country in the production and use of agricultural machinery products.According to relevant statistics,there are 1,892 agricultural machinery products enterprises above designated size in China in 2019,and the overall development of the industry is considerable.However,due to the seasonal,regional and dispersed nature of agricultural machinery products and the multi-link,complex structure and wide distribution of agricultural machinery supply chain,the supply chain of agricultural machinery products is vulnerable to the influence of internal and external uncertain factors,which lead to risks.The competition among agricultural machinery enterprises has evolved into the competition among different agricultural machinery supply chains.In order to enhance the competitive advantages of agricultural machinery industry and enterprises and ensure the benefit of crop production,it is of practical significance to study the identification,evaluation and control of agricultural machinery products supply chain risk.The paper selectes agricultural machinery products as the research object,based on the characteristics of agricultural machinery products and their supply chain,combines with the general supply chain risk theories,and comprehensively studies the identification,evaluation and control of supply chain risk of agricultural machinery products.Firstly,the research status of supply chain risk of agricultural machinery products at home and abroad is summarized,including risk source classification,risk evaluation process,risk control measures and research methods;the related theories of supply chain risk management are concludes,then it analyzes and compares various research methods of risk identification and evaluation;the development status of agricultural machinery industry and the structure pattern of supply chain are summarized,too.Secondly,starting from external environment and internal environment,2 first-level indicators,12 second-level indicators and 39 thirdlevel indicators are identified by using the flowchart method;the factors are screened by using the fuzzy Delphi method,and two third-level indicators are eliminated finally,so as to construct the supply chain risk evaluation index system of agricultural machinery products;the relative weight and risk level value of risk indicators of different levels are calculated by using expert rating and questionnaire survey,as well as the entropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Calculation results shows that the comprehensive risk level value of agricultural machinery supply chain is 2.835,which is between "medium risk" and "the lower risk",among all secondary indicators,the risk levels of R&D,production and procurement are higher than others,which are between "medium risk" and "the higher risk".The level of political and legal environment risk index is the lowest.Finally,according to the results of risk rating evaluation and cluster analysis of the supply chain,different types of risk control measures for agricultural machinery supply chain are proposed from the dimensions of research and development,production and procurement,in order to help enterprises in the supply chain of agricultural machinery to mitigate operational risks and maintain competitive advantages.