| Both the planting area and the single yield of corn are among the top of China’s grain,and play an important role in the composition of China’s grain.Corn is widely used.It is not only people’s food ration,but also the basis of animal feed,agricultural products and medicine.Therefore,corn plays a vital role in food security,and also exists in the raw materials of many industries in the form of starch.It is a common and indispensable crop in our life.For Shandong,corn is one of the main grain crops in Shandong.Studying the fluctuation and influencing factors of corn prices in Shandong Province is conducive to maintaining the stability of the corn market in Shandong,indirectly guaranteeing the income of corn growers,ensuring the orderly production of plants with corn as raw materials,and studying the fluctuation of corn prices in Shandong Province is of great significance to the people’s livelihood.In this article,I selected the corn market price of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2021 as the research data,analyzed the price fluctuation of Shandong corn in the past ten years,explored its changing rules,explored the factors that significantly affected the price of Shandong corn in the past ten years,and committed to putting forward acceptable suggestions and countermeasures for the government and relevant departments to benefit the people.In the process of research,this paper selected three aspects of supply,demand and policy research to describe and explain,and also used VAR model to analyze the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis of different influencing factors on the corn price in Shandong Province through impulse response function,and conducted a robustness analysis of the model.The research conclusions are as follows: Through in-depth analysis of the relationship between various factors that have significant effects,from the perspective of corn import volume,the short-term import of corn only indicates that the market price of corn in Shandong Province will increase,but with the continuous increase of import volume,the market price of corn that has risen too fast will be suppressed to some extent from the aspect of supply market.From the perspective of the international market price,the change of the corn price in the international market will be transmitted to the corn market price in Shandong Province at a faster speed.From the perspective of demand-side price changes,in the short term,because pork is in the downstream of the corn industry,its price feedback to the upstream is slow,but in the long term,it will eventually be transmitted to the upstream,that is,it will drive the corn market price to change in the same direction from the demand side,showing the same trend response.From the perspective of policy impact,with the continuous release of the "market-oriented procurement+subsidy" policy dividend,the corn market price in Shandong Province has finally stabilized,showing a regular small fluctuation.When the COVID-19 suddenly impacted our lives,the corn price was also affected.Our country and local governments immediately issued relevant policies.Faced with the impact of these policies,the corn market price in Shandong Province showed an obvious positive response,and the epidemic and other policies to a certain extent pushed up the corn market price in Shandong Province.The impact of various influencing factors on the market price of corn in Shandong Province is different.On the whole,with the increase of the number of periods,the ability of CINT,PORK,IM,COV,PO to explain the variance of the market price of corn in Shandong Province is increasing.The specific and obvious price inertia of the corn market price in Shandong Province is most affected by itself.The second is the policy of the COVID-19 epidemic,the third is the CINT of the corn price in the international market,the fourth is "market-oriented procurement+subsidies",and the smallest variance explanation ability is the corn import volume and pork price in Shandong Province. |
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