Study On The Fluctuation Of Corn Price And Its Influencing Factors In Henan Province

With the economic and social development and the progress of science and technology,corn's versatility highlights because of its own advantages.With the rapid development of corn processing industry,combined with the policies of strengthening agriculture and benefitting farmers introduced by the state gradually,the demand for corn increases rapidly and corn production develops rapidly,at the same time,the market price of corn increases gradually.In recent years,the corn market presents oversupply.In 2015,China cut corn price for the first time,followed by continuing fall of the market price of corn.As the second largest grain crops in yield in Henan Province,the fluctuation of corn price affects vital interests of the corn growers and the development of corn industry in Henan Province directly.By studying of the fluctuation's specific characteristics of the corn market price in Henan Province,this paper analyzes the cause and mechanism of the fluctuation of the corn price,and the studies the main influencing factors and degree of the fluctuation of the corn price.According to the research conclusion,put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:The first chapter introduces the topic basis,research framework and methods.The second chapter includes the literature review and the theoretic basis.The third chapter first looks back the course of the policy reform of the corn price and the uses the time trend decomposition method to define the fluctuation cycle of the corn price in Henan Province.Fluctuation characteristics are mainly: the corn price presents greater volatility and rise overall,each fluctuation cycle is a classical volatility,the malignant fluctuation degree is bigger,the fluctuation cycle is shorter,the fluctuation is violent,the period of extension is slightly shorter than systolic period and there is a tendency to reduce in the fluctuation range.The fourth chapter mainly from the aspects of supply and demand and external shocks selects corn output,demand and cost factors,alternative price,import and export quantity of corn,international market price of corn,natural disasters,residents' income,macroeconomic situation and policy through the graphical control and the method of comparative analysis to analyze the cause and mechanism of Henan Province corn price fluctuation.The fifth chapter carries on the correlation analysis and Granger causality test to the main influencing factors of the corn price fluctuation and constructs an empirical analysis model of the influencing factors of the corn price in Henan Province.Analysis shows that: core yield,total cost,corn price of international market,per capita disposable income of urban residents have a strong correlation with corn price of Henan Province;corn production,import quantity,total cost and per capita disposable income of urban residents are the Granger cause of the corn price;corn production and import quantity present the reverse change in relationship,corn price in the international market have a significant positive impact on the price of corn in Henan Province.The sixth chapter draws the corresponding conclusion on the basis of summary of the full text,and puts forward some policy suggestions: improving the formation mechanism of market price of corn;controlling corn planting cost;strengthening the information service of the corn market and improving the legal management of the market.