| Corn is the grain variety with the largest yield and consumption and the most extensive use.The stability of corn price is not only closely related to the planting income of farmers,but also has a far-reaching impact on China’s corn processing industry and feed consumption market.Therefore,maintaining the stability of corn price is crucial to the benign development of China’s corn market.Under the combined influence of internal factors and external factors,China’s corn shows the co-existence of strong supply and weak consumption,corn price inversion and drastic fluctuation of corn price,which has exerted a negative impact on China’s corn market.In the context of destocking,the drawbacks of the temporary purchase and storage policy have become prominent.In 2016,the new price subsidy and separation policy replaced the temporary purchase and storage policy,aiming to give full play to the decisive role of the market mechanism in resource allocation,make the corn price more closely related to the changes in supply and demand,and promote the healthy development of the corn market.The fluctuation of corn price is frequent and has great influence.This paper aims to find out the fluctuation rule of corn price and the influencing factors of corn price.By studying the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of corn price,this paper hopes to achieve three purposes.The first is to find out the change rule and fluctuation characteristic of Chinese corn price,and provide an idea for forecasting the change of corn price.The second is to explore the seasonal change of corn price and find out the seasonal change trend and rule of corn price.The third is to find out the factors affecting the price of corn,and describe the degree of influence of each factor on the price of corn,so as to provide a reference for the country to formulate corn regulatory policies.In this way,the change trend and characteristics of corn price can be described from the annual and seasonal aspects,and the influence effect and relationship change of influencing factors on corn price can be found out,so as to provide a trend of corn price change for corn growers and corn consumer enterprises,and also provide ideas for the country to formulate corn regulatory policies.The innovation of this paper lies in two aspects: one is the innovation of research methods.In this paper,the multiple regression model is used for empirical analysis,and the multiple collinearity test,stationary test,co-integration test and GRANGER causality test are used to obtain the influencing factors of corn price,which is more reasonable.Second,research perspective innovation.When studying the fluctuation characteristics of corn price,this paper also pays attention to the seasonal change law of corn price and explores the seasonal change law of corn price,which is not only conducive to a more scientific and reasonable understanding of the change law of corn price,but also provides a choice orientation for corn suppliers and direct consumers.At the same time,under the background of agricultural supply-side structural reform,this paper introduced the policy of price subsidy separation,systematically analyzed the change characteristics and influencing factors of corn price from internal and external factors,and put forward targeted policy Suggestions.There are four main research methods in this paper.Literature induction: by sorting out and summarizing the existing literature,and paying attention to the research on the characteristics,influencing factors and solutions of the fluctuation of corn price in related literature,the theoretical basis and effective research methods helpful to the research of this paper are obtained,and the research and writing of this paper are conducted on this basis.Qualitative and quantitative analysis: on the basis of price theory,equilibrium price theory and cobweb model theory,through the collation and analysis of historical data of grain price,the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of grain price are obtained.Statistical analysis: in this paper,the fluctuation range and growth rate are used to analyze the characteristics of corn price fluctuation.Econometric analysis: byselecting variables,building a multiple regression model,and using Eviews8.0software for empirical analysis.The fluctuation characteristics of corn price have the following characteristics.Since 1998,the price of corn has a trend of fluctuation and rise,which is trend,cyclical and seasonal,and the annual fluctuation and seasonal fluctuation exist at the same time.The price of corn has a general upward trend,with severe cyclical fluctuations.It has a trend of shorter cycle,larger amplitude and larger average annual amplitude,and the fluctuations become more severe.The seasonal characteristics show that prices are in the rising stage in the second and third quarters,and in the falling stage in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the second year.This paper argues that the price change of corn is influenced by the production cost,national policy,the relationship between supply and consumption,the price of substitutes and other factors.Through the qualitative analysis,it is concluded that the price of corn and the production cost have the same change relationship,and are related to the price of substitutes,regulation policy and supply and demand.Using the multiple regression model to analyze the influencing factors of corn price,the results show that there is a significant positive relationship between the production cost and the price of corn,and the production cost is consistent with the trend of corn price.For every unit of cost increase,the price of corn increases by 0.3164 units.For every unit of change in cash income,it affects the price of corn by 0.5724 units.The regulation and control policy has a significant influence on the corn price,and the temporary purchase and storage policy has a supporting effect on the corn price.The inventory consumption ratio is the granger cause of the corn price,which has a significant negative impact on the corn price.Every unit of the inventory consumption ratio increases,the corn price decreases by 0.1047 units.The price ratio of substitutes and corn price has a significant negative effect on the price of corn.When the price of substitutes is higher than that of corn,the substitutionrelationship is likely to occur.Corn yield was positively correlated with the price of corn.The price of corn increased by 0.0001 unit for every unit increase in corn yield.This was because corn price showed a trend of change in the same direction as that of corn yield due to the support of grain production increase year after year and temporary purchase and storage policy.Imports are positively correlated with corn prices and are more likely to occur when corn prices are higher.In order to stabilize the price of corn and promote the healthy development of the corn market,this paper puts forward three Suggestions.First of all,the relationship between inventory and consumption should be properly handled.The ratio of corn storage to consumption should be maintained at a range of 30-50%.Secondly,it is necessary to ensure the balance between supply and demand.The difference between supply and demand of corn should be kept at 30-60 million tons.Finally,emphasis should be placed on farmers’ output efficiency and the use of corn substitutes. |
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