| The New Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road,also known as the Belt and Road Initiative,are national-level initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 to promote connectivity among countries along the routes,achieve common prosperity.The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century.The international situation is grim,with frequent “black swan” events and emerging risks and challenges.Upholding the principle of a community with a shared future for mankind is the best solution to global governance,and the Belt and Road Initiative is a concrete practice to achieve this goal.Therefore,based on the combination of complex network and nonlinear Maximum Information Coefficient(hereinafter referred to as MIC),this paper constructs the Belt and Road stock index network,analyzes the correlation and evolution characteristics of stock markets in representative countries or regions along the Belt and Road,and studies the contagion effect of financial systemic risk.Specifically,this paper first used the nonlinear MIC and the linear Pearson correlation coefficient(hereinafter referred to as Pearson)to measure the strength of the correlation in representative countries or regions along the Belt and Road allowing for the two periods before and after the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward,drew the correlation coefficient matrix and conducted comparative analysis.Then,the MIC method with comparative advantage is used as the measurement tool of the correlation strength between the two variables to construct the overall stock index network model.Then the Minimum Spanning Tree(hereinafter referred to as MST)method is used to analyze the stock index network in each sample period,and measuring the statistical properties of the network using topological indicators,analyzing the evolution of dynamic correlation characteristics of the stock indexes of representative countries or regions along the Belt and Road from the release of the policy to the present,exploring the transmission path of systemic risks in the stock market of each country during each sample period,and revealing the status and function of each country in risk contagion.Finally,the systemic risk changes and risk contagion effects in the stock markets of the Belt and Road countries before and after extreme events are deeply analyzed from the perspective of complex network.The results show that:(1)Since the policy was issued,the Chinese stock market is in the center of the stock index networks in the representative countries or regions along the Belt and Road,has become more closely related to the stock indices of other countries or regions.(2)During all sub-sample periods,especially before the policy was put forward,the stock index networks of the Belt and Road representative countries or regions generally have aggregation characteristics of regional geography in the mass.In addition,the Belt and Road policy has deepened the contact between the stock markets of representative countries or regions along the Belt and Road.(3)Financial extreme events will strengthen the risk contagion among the stock markets of countries along the Belt and Road.During the period of volatility,the financial systemic risk reaches the maximum,the MST network shows a shrinking state and it will stretch out after the risk.In addition,the risk contagion effect brought by COVID-19 in 2020 is greater than that of China’s stock market crash in 2015.(4)Since 2015,the degree of relationship between countries or regions along the Belt and Road has been changing.Still,the overall correlation among these countries or regions tends to be stable.China,Singapore,Sri Lanka,and Hungary have always been at the central nodes of the networks,which also have played a particular intermediary pivotal role in the trade with other countries. |
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