The Construction Of Dual Circular Economy System Based On "one Belt One Road" And The High-quality Development Of China’s Manufacturing Industry Research

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee clearly formulated a major deployment of "Accelerating the construction of a major domestic cycle as the main body and the new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles".Build the economic system of "domestic and international dual cycle" as well as "One Belt One Road",which is an important indicator of promoting the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry and realizing the transformation from "being globalized" to "leading globalization".The "dual cycle" laid the core development path for China’s manufacturing to transform from "being captured" to "leading the global industrial chain" by building a domestic industrial system.The "One Belt,One Road" initiative provides an important opportunity to realize the precise connection between domestic and international economic cycles.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper firstly explores the mechanism of the "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road" in promoting the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry.Secondly,based on the theory of dual value chain,complex network and input-output,the matching and nesting of China’s provincial input-output table(IRIOT)and the global input-output table(WIOT)was realized.The paper measures related indicators such as the dual value chain,complex network and spatial effect matrix of China’s provincial manufacturing industry based on consecutive years under the background of "dual cycle".At the same time,combined with the multi-regional input-output table(ADB-MRIO),it has realized the construction and measurement of the domestic economic cycle,regional economic cycle and international economic cycle index and spatial effect matrix of China’s sub-manufacturing industry under the background of the "One Belt One Road".Thirdly,using fixed-effects model,simultaneous equation model,Difference-in-Difference and Propensity Score Matching as well as other methods,combined with indicators such as total factor productivity,foreign capital,human capital,market competition and government subsidies,this paper empirically explores and tests the influence of "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road" on the adequacy,poverty alleviation and economic resilience of the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry.Combining the Kronecker product to construct a time-space weight matrix,it uses a dynamic spatial panel model to empirically test the mechanism of the "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road" spatial spillover effect and spatial catch-up effect.And it is based on the spatial measurement test of cross-sectional data,which further verifies the robustness of the regression results.The core research conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows.Firstly,the high-quality development of manufacturing at least includes three dimensions: full growth,balanced development,and resilience improvement.The "One Belt One Road" has an important impact on the "Dual Cycles" path that promotes the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry,and is based on the realization of a win-win mechanism based on the industry’s cohesion efficiency of relevant economic flows.Under the background of "Dual Cycles",the embedding of the international value chain and the centrality of the international circulation have a significant role in promoting the full growth of the manufacturing industry;the embedding of the domestic value chain and the centrality of the domestic circulation have significantly improved the economic pro-poorness and economic resilience of China’s manufacturing industry.In the context of the "One Belt One Road",the industrial clustering coefficient of the international economic cycle has significantly increased its role in the full growth of China’s manufacturing industry and widening the economic gap,and its role in economic resilience has changed from positive to negative.The negative effect has decreased significantly of the industrial clustering coefficient of the domestic economic cycle on the full growth of China’s manufacturing industry,and its effect on reducing the economic gap and improving economic resilience has increased significantly.The industrial clustering coefficient of the regional economic cycle has changed from negative to positive for the full growth of China’s manufacturing industry,and its effect has been significantly improved on reducing the economic gap and improving economic resilience.Secondly,the effects of the "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road" on the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry both show significant spatial characteristics,based on the realization of the spillover mechanism and catch-up mechanism of the industry-related network.Under the background of "Dual Cycles",the centrality of spillover effect significantly strengthens the promotion of the international economic cycle to the full growth of the manufacturing industry,the centrality of the catch-up effect significantly improves the positive effect of the domestic economic cycle on the pro-poorness of the manufacturing industry,and the spillover and catch-up mechanism will significantly strengthen the impact of the "Dual Cycles" on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.In the context of the "One Belt One Road" initiative,the spillover effect has significantly increased the impact of the international economic cycle clustering coefficient on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,while the catch-up effect has significantly increased the impact of clustering coefficient of the regional economic cycle and the domestic economic cycle on the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.Thirdly,in the context of "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road",factors such as total factor productivity,foreign capital,human capital,market competition,and government subsidies have important impacts on the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry.Under the "Dual Cycles",the increase in total factor productivity,market competition,and government subsidies will significantly promote the adequacy,pro-poorness and resilience of the high-quality development of manufacturing;The declining of foreign capital dividend has a restraining effect on high-quality development;human capital is not conducive to pro-poor development while promoting the full growth and resilience of manufacturing,and needs to be monitored.Under the "One Belt One Road",in response to the full growth of China’s manufacturing,the positive effects of total factor productivity and human capital have been highlighted,and the positive effects of foreign capital,market competition,and government subsidies have declined;In response to the economic pro-poorness of China’s manufacturing industry,the positive effects of total factor productivity,market competition,and government subsidies have increased,and the negative effects of foreign capital and human capital have further expanded.In view of economic resilience of China’s manufacturing industry,the above factors have shown a stronger positive effect.The study pointed out that,the realization of promoting the full,balanced and sustainable high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry based on the "Domestic and International Dual Cycles",which relies to a considerable extent on the domestic and international circulation linking by the "One Belt One Road".The complex network of industrial linkages constructed by the "Dual Cycles" and "One Belt One Road" endows it with significant spatial effect characteristics.To implement the above ideas on the path of China’s manufacturing industry,it is necessary to innovatively drive the gradient transfer and phased transformation of China’s manufacturing industry in the area under the strategic system of "dual cycle" and "One Belt One Road".And in the process of "industry and trade integration,transfer and transformation linkage",gradually build a three-dimensional structure of high-quality manufacturing development that emphasizes optimization,upgrading and reasonable layout.At the same time,to further promote the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry,it must pay attention to the following five aspects of policy optimization: First,improve the construction of the domestic independent industrial system;second,further tap the remaining dividends of globalization;third,deepen the high-quality opening of manufacturing to the outside world;fourth,optimize the quality dimension network correlation mechanism;fifth,realize the dual power cooperation of overflowing and catching up.