| Since China joined the World Trade Organization,China and the world have rapidly established an increasingly close trade interdependence relationship.However,due to many factors,the current level of trade dependence of most countries in the world on China is not balanced with that of China on these countries,asymmetry has become one of the important characteristics of China’s interdependence with multinational trade.Asymmetry means that the interests obtained by the two sides in international trade are not consistent,which can be regarded as a reflection of economic power or influence.When symmetry reaches a certain level,both trading parties,especially the dependent party,will re-examine and guard against such dependence relationship,which is prone to divergence of economic interests and even political and diplomatic conflicts.Therefore,studying the asymmetric trade dependence and its influencing factors is beneficial for China to formulate reasonable and scientific foreign policies and regional strategies,and for establishing sustainable economic interdependence with other countries.The Middle East is one of the regions in the world with high resource endowment and important strategic position,but with multiple contradictions.In the new era,China and countries in the Middle East have stronger demand for economic and trade cooperation and desire for strategic alignment.Therefore,analyzing the trade dependence and asymmetry between China and the Middle East countries can provide more scientific thinking and policy basis for safeguarding the core interests of the country and promoting the benign interaction of economic and trade relations,which is conducive to promoting the high-quality construction of the "the Belt and Road",especially the "China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor".Based on data and information from international authoritative websites,this study uses methods such as sensitivity,vulnerability,exploratory spatial data analysis,and spatial econometric models to analyze the evolution of the spatio-temporal pattern of asymmetric trade dependence between China and 20 countries in the Middle East from2005 to 2020.Then further identify the factors that affect the spatio-temporal evolution of asymmetric trade dependence.Finally,based on relevant conclusions,targeted recommendations are proposed to optimize China’s trade dependence relationship with countries in the Middle East.The final conclusions of this article are as follows:Firstly,although the foreign trade dependence of China and the Middle East countries has declined on the whole,their trade interdependence has increased.Since the global financial crisis in 2008,anti-globalization and protectionism have intensified.China and many Middle Eastern countries have seen their dependence on foreign trade decline.Since 2010,the "Arab Spring" revolution has swept through the Middle East,and the growth rate of foreign trade among Middle East countries has generally slowed down.Before 2010,the foreign trade dependence of each country was basically in the range of 40%-100%,but after 2010,the foreign trade dependence was concentrated in the range of 20%-80%.On the other hand,except for some countries such as Iran,Turkey and the United Arab Emirates,the trade scale between China and other Middle Eastern countries tends to increase during the study period,and the trade dependence relationship between China and Middle Eastern countries is enhanced as a whole.Secondly,China has a single trade structure with Middle Eastern countries,with trade concentrated in mineral products and machinery and equipment products.Both China and Middle Eastern countries tend to export goods with production advantages,with China mainly importing mineral products from Middle Eastern countries and Middle Eastern countries mainly importing machinery and equipment products from China.These two types of goods are of great significance to both trading parties.However,as China’s dependence on foreign energy continues to rise,China will continue to strengthen mineral imports from Middle Eastern countries.From the perspective of trade structure,these commodities with low degree of substitution will in turn strengthen China’s trade dependence on Middle East countries,thus reducing the asymmetry of trade dependence between China and Middle East countries to some extent.Thirdly,Middle Eastern countries have significant differences in their trade sensitivity and vulnerability to China,but overall they have higher sensitivity and vulnerability to China.Take 2020 as an example,Palestine has the lowest sensitivity to China,with a sensitivity level of 1.06%.Yemen,which has the highest sensitivity to China,reached 42.63%.In terms of vulnerability,Palestine is also the least vulnerable to China,with a vulnerability level of 0.67%.Oman,which has the highest level of vulnerability to China,reached 29.23%.In addition,at each research time node,the sensitivity and vulnerability of the Middle East countries to China are higher than that of China to the Middle East countries.Therefore,bilateral trade has a significant impact on the international trade and economic development of Middle Eastern countries,while the impact on China is relatively small.Fourthly,the asymmetric trade dependence between China and Middle Eastern countries presents a spatial pattern of "weak in the northwest and strong in the southeast",but the overall asymmetric dependence relationship is strengthened.The asymmetric trade dependence between China and the Middle East countries has obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.The asymmetric trade dependence between countries in the eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus and China is relatively weak,while the asymmetric trade dependence between countries in the southern Arabian Peninsula and China is relatively strong.However,overall,there is a continuous strengthening trend in the asymmetric trade dependence between China and Middle Eastern countries.During the research period,except for Lebanon,all other Middle Eastern countries achieved a positive annual average growth rate in their trade dependence asymmetry with China.Fifthly,the asymmetric trade dependence between China and Middle Eastern countries is influenced by factors such as market size,communication level,resource endowment,technological innovation level,and political stability.Among them,market size,communication level,resource endowment,and political stability factors have a positive effect,with market size having the strongest impact,while technological innovation level factors have a negative effect.At the same time,China’s asymmetric trade dependence with Middle Eastern countries has a spatial spillover effect.After a Middle Eastern country forms an asymmetric trade dependence relationship with China,this relationship will also affect the asymmetric dependence relationship between neighboring Middle Eastern countries and China.This influence can be spatially transmitted through trade connectivity effect.In order to avoid geo-economic and geopolitical risks,a country tends to establish trade relations with the cooperative objects of its trading partners,which also provides conditions for the formation of asymmetric trade dependence between two countries.Combined with the above conclusions,this study believes that with the general enhancement of asymmetry of trade dependence,trade frictions and interest differences between China and Middle Eastern countries will also tend to increase.Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to scientifically assess the asymmetry and evolution trend of trade dependence between China and the countries in the Middle East,and propose targeted policy recommendations,including enhancing political interaction and mutual trust,promoting technical exchanges and cooperation,optimizing the bilateral trade structure,improving infrastructure construction,and strengthening regional and national research to promote economic and trade exchanges between China and the Middle East countries on a sound track of development. |
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