| Vietnam and China are two friendly neighbors,and the geographical conditions-the borderline of 1100 kilometers on land-have led to a close relationship between the two countries long ago.Both countries are socialist countries led by the Communist Party and have deep cultural and historical origins and close economic and trade relations.For various reasons,it was not until 1991 that the efforts of the Vietnamese and Chinese governments normalized the relationship between the two countries,and since then the two sides have developed a comprehensive cooperative relationship.Since 1991,Vietnam’s trade with China has been growing steadily,and diplomatic relations have also seen new developments.From the "Sixteen-character" policy of Sino-Vietnamese relations in 1999-"long-term stability,future-oriented,good-neighborly friendship,and comprehensive cooperation" and the "four good" proposed in 2005-"good neighbors,good friends,good comrades,good partners "In 2008,the relationship between the two countries was upgraded to a" comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership."With the joint efforts of the leaders of the two countries,Vietnam and China formally realized a positive relationship in 1991,marking a new stage in the development of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.Since 2004,China has been Vietnam’s largest trading partner for many years.For example,the bilateral trade volume between Vietnam and China was US $ 33 million in 1991,and it has already exceeded US $ 106.7 billion in 2018,an increase of more than 3,200 times.China is currently Vietnam’s second largest export market after the United States.Vietnam is also China’s largest trading partner in ASEAN,the eighth largest trading country in the world,the fifth largest export market and China’s ninth largest import market.The trade relations between the two countries have formed an interdependent situation.However,the trade balance and commodity structure between Vietnam and China have led to the asymmetry of Vietnam-China trade interdependence.This article firstly analyzes the characteristics and existing problems of the trade relations between the two countries through the import and export volume and commodity structure of Vietnam-China goods trade.The author found that the trade in goods between the two countries has developed rapidly and the total amount has continued to increase.From 2001 to 2018,the average total volume of goods trade between the two countries increased by 22.78%,of which Vietnam ’s exports to China increased by an average of 21.40%,and Vietnam’s imports to China increased by an average of 24.81%.With the rapid development of trade between the two countries and the widening gap in trade in goods,Vietnam has always been a deficit country.From US$ 190 million in 2001 to US $ 24.17 billion in 2018,it is estimated to increase 127 times.The gap in the rate of increase in imports and exports is one of the reasons for this result.From the perspective of the structure of import and export commodities,the Vietnam-China trade structure of goods is competitive and complementary but relatively unitary.Over the years,the import and export commodities of the two countries have not changed much.Vietnam mainly exports agricultural and aquatic products and fuel materials to China,while imports mainly process and manufacture products.In addition,in 2018,the gap between the two countries’ trade statistics was US $ 41.3 billion-in addition to the difference in the statistical methods between the two sides,the most important reason is smuggling and trade fraud in the border areas.From the trade status of the two countries in each other’s economy,the author believes that the two countries have formed an interdependent situation,but this relationship is asymmetric.By analyzing the two indicators of sensitivity and vulnerability,it is found that Vietnam is greater than China in terms of both sensitivity and vulnerability,that means Vietnam is more dependent on China than China is dependent on Vietnam.However,from the analysis of the increase in sensitivity and vulnerability,the author believes that Vietnam-China interdependence is developing in a direction that is conducive to Vietnam.The direction of symmetry is constantly evolving,and Vietnam will have more and more power.On the other hand,the interdependence of trade in goods has had a positive impact on Vietnam-China relations.The close exchanges in trade in goods allow the two economies to develop each other and promote better relations between the two countries.In addition,they also play a "stabilizer" role in politics.But at the same time it has also caused frictions between Vietnam and China.China in a favorable position will have more say and can use the power of manipulation.Asymmetric interdependence also leads to economic friction between the two sides-huge trade balances,which affects relations between the two countries.Discussing the trend of Vietnam-China relations in the context of interdependence of goods trade,the author finds that Vietnam-China goods trade will still develop in the future,but Vietnam will still be in a deficit position.In the short term,the trade balance between Vietnam and China cannot be immediately balanced,and it requires a long route.Under the influence of world economic integration,Vietnam will gradually improve the disadvantaged position of Vietnam’s interdependent and asymmetric relationship between the two countries.From the perspective of Vietnam-China long-term development,this article proposes measures to change Vietnam’s disadvantaged position in the asymmetric relationship between the two countries.To achieve this goal,Vietnam needs to adjust the structure of imported and exported commodities,reduce raw materials,and increase products with high technological content.At the same time,it must implement a diversified export market strategy,find new markets but cannot ignore the Chinese market in order to reduce the asymmetry of interdependence between the two countries.In this way,the trade relationship between Vietnam and China can change and become better. |
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