Research On The Financial Resilience Of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises Under The Background Of The Epidemic

At the end of December 2019,COVID-19 epidemic swept the world,causing a great impact on China’s economy as a whole.The problems caused by the epidemic,such as difficulties in raw material supply,slowdown in logistics,blocked exports,difficulties in resuming work and tight funds,have brought unprecedented challenges to the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises,which in turn has caused imbalances in the financial situation of enterprises.With China’s epidemic prevention and control taking the lead in achieving major strategic results,the manufacturing industry has shown a strong resilience of "rapid decline-rapid recovery-stability".How to reflect the overall financial situation of China’s manufacturing industry under the impact of the epidemic,and identify,measure and enhance the financial resilience of manufacturing enterprises is a major hot issue facing the recovery and high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry in the "post-epidemic era".Based on the theories related to the micro impact and resilience of major public health events,this thesis constructed a set of comprehensive financial index system including 3first-level indicators and 11 second-level indicators.It was based on the financial data of enterprises in 10 representative regions and 5 representative industries from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2021.Focusing on the actual financial situation of Chinese manufacturing enterprises under the background of COVID-19 epidemic,the global entropy method was used to calculate the comprehensive financial index of manufacturing industry.Then,based on the perspective of the change range and recovery time of the comprehensive financial index of the manufacturing industry before and after the outbreak of the epidemic,the combined model of breakpoint regression and difference method(RDD-DID)was used to accurately measure the impact of the epidemic impact on manufacturing enterprises,and the financial status around the end of 2018 was taken as the control group.To ensure the robustness of the research conclusions on the financial resilience of manufacturing enterprises under the pandemic impact,the event analysis model was used to estimate the persistence of the negative impact of the pandemic impact on the comprehensive financial index of manufacturing enterprises and the time required for the recovery of positive growth.Finally,the heterogeneity of financial resilience of manufacturing enterprises in different regions,industries,property rights and sizes under the impact of COVID-19 was comprehensively investigated.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)On the one hand,since the first quarter of 2018,the comprehensive financial index of China’s manufacturing enterprises has shown obvious seasonal fluctuations.The comprehensive financial index in the first quarter of each year was the lowest in the year,and the financial level index in the second,third and fourth quarters increased sequentially.In 2018,it increased from 0.673 in the first quarter to 0.680 in the fourth quarter,from0.674 in the first quarter to 0.689 in the fourth quarter in 2019,from 0.670 in the first quarter to 0.684 in the fourth quarter in 2020,and from 0.675 in the first quarter to 0.682 in the fourth quarter in 2021.This phenomenon is mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday,which not only reduces the number of working days,but also produces other diffusion effects.On the other hand,the manufacturing composite financial index fell the most in the first quarter of 2020,from 0.689 to 0.670,a decrease of 21.3%.Obviously,the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought the most serious damage to China’s manufacturing industry in recent years.(2)The results of breakpoint regression-double difference model and event analysis model show that the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia at the end of 2019 did have a negative impact on the financial status of manufacturing enterprises,and the impact was immediately reflected in the first quarter after the outbreak and peaked in the third quarter.The absolute value of the coefficient was 0.15,then gradually weakened,and basically disappeared in the fifth quarter,which still holds true when the secondary term of the distribution variable or the data of the outbreak season is added to the breakpoint regression-double difference model,demonstrating the strong financial resilience of China’s manufacturing enterprises.(3)Based on the four perspectives of region,industry,property rights and scale,It is concluded that the absolute value of the regional coefficient of the experimental group is0.09 higher than that of the control group area of 0.03,and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the manufacturing industry in the severely affected areas is greater,which is in line with the different characteristics of the intensity of epidemic prevention and control policies in different regions,reflecting the actual epidemic prevention and control in China;the absolute values of the coefficients of general equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing are 0.08 and 0.06,respectively,which are the most affected by the epidemic,mainly because the willingness to invest in the manufacturing industry has been suppressed,which in turn affects the purchase demand for general equipment,and there is a large gap in the upstream supply and downstream demand of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry;the absolute value of the coefficient of foreign-funded enterprises is 0.09,which is significantly higher than 0 of state-owned enterprises.05 and 0.04 for private enterprises indicate that the epidemic has the greatest negative impact on foreign-funded enterprises,which better confirms the global characteristics of the new crown pneumonia epidemic;the absolute value of 0.07 for small and medium-sized enterprises is greater than 0.03 for large enterprises,and small and medium-sized enterprises are more affected by the impact of the epidemic than large enterprises due to financing channel costs and capital operation and management problems.