Research On The Impact Of Stock Prices Of Pharmaceutical Companies By The COVID-19 Epidemic

In the long river of human survival and development,infectious diseases have always accompanied each other.These infections diseases spread from the outbreak of smallpox in the United States in the 16 th and 17 th centuries to the worldwide outbreak of cholera in the 19 th century,from the Spanish current to the ravages of SARS,and even the COVID-19 to countries around the world.Public health emergencies inevitably bring immeasurable consequences to a country’s economy and development.All of these caused immeasurable losses to countries all over the world.The stock market can be described as a “barometer" of a country’s economic development”.In this context,it is not difficult to see that public health events will lead to violent fluctuations in the stock market.The most intuitive manifestation of this influence is the impact on the volatility of stock price returns of listed companies.Based on the above observation,this thesis uses EVIEWS10.0 software to establish a VAR model based on the stock price volatility of different business pharmaceutical companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic,with the gold to analyzes the impact of the development trend of public health events on the stock price fluctuations of enterprises based on the event study method.This thesis first analyze the impact on the entire pharmaceutical industry since the outbreak of the COVID-19.After drawing the conclusion that it does have an impact on the fluctuation of the overall pharmaceutical industry index,it focuses on the different business representatives in the pharmaceutical industry.This thesis analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 on the stock price changes of listed pharmaceutical companies with different main businesses.Focusing on the analysis of the different development stages after the outbreak of the COVID-19,the main reasons for its impact on the stock price are disclosed.Through the empirical analysis,the following conclusions are as drawn :(1)The development of the COVID-19 epidemic will affect the fluctuation of the stock price of the Shenzhen Pharmaceutical Industry Index,and its impact can be either positive or negative,and be flattened over time.(2)From the longitudinal time series,in the early stage of the outbreak,its impact on stock prices was mostly based on the “wind direction” impact of changes in investor sentiment and information asymmetry.As the epidemic prevention became more and more routinized,its impact on the stock prices of representative pharmaceutical companies is mostly based on actual performance and overwhelming judgments from the market.(3)From the comparison of horizontal companies,with the COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control situation,its impact on the stock prices on representative companies in the pharmaceutical industry is different.Judging from the initial stage of the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic and the later stages of normalized prevention and control,for Allmed Medical,whose main business is medical dressings,the development of the epidemic has significantly affected its stock price fluctuations.For Bio Kangtai,whose main business is vaccine R&D and production,the impact of the development of the epidemic on its stock price fluctuations gradually diminished.For Yiling Pharmaceutical,whose main business is the R&D and production of proprietary Chinese medicines,the volatility of its stock price and the development of the epidemic gradually become more significant.The empirical analysis provides decision-making advice for investors’ investment behavior and government behavior during the outbreak of public health emergencies.