Study On The Impact Of COVID-19 On Chinese Express Delivery Industry

At the beginning of 2020,China was hit by a severe outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia,and strict prevention and control measures were taken to contain the spread and development of the epidemic,including closing cities,closing borders and maintaining social distancing.Although the epidemic has been effectively controlled,the strict quarantine measures have had a lasting impact on all industries in China,especially the service sector.The stock market has always been regarded as a barometer of the national economy,and the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy is often reflected in the changes of stock prices in the first place.Stocks in service industries such as tourism,transportation,leisure and entertainment fell sharply amid the impact of the epidemic.The express delivery industry,a leading sector in Chinese service industry,also saw a year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2020.In the process of fighting the epidemic,the express delivery industry,on the one hand,ensures the delivery of prevention and control materials and the distribution of daily necessities,and on the other hand,promotes the circulation of commodities and the resumption of production of enterprises.In the middle and later stages of the epidemic,the express industry was one of the first industries to resume work and production,and it was also an important support and guarantee for the pharmaceutical industry,ecommerce and other industries.The epidemic made the strategic position of the express industry confirmed again.In this context,an in-depth analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the express delivery industry can provide a reference basis for assessing the impact of similar major epidemics on the industry economy in the future.Firstly,CAAR was used in this paper to measure the abnormal returns of express delivery industry in the event window before and after the outbreak of the epidemic,and it was found that the epidemic caused a significant negative impact on the express delivery industry in the short term.Secondly,BHAR was used to measure the abnormal returns in 34 months after the announcement date,and it was found that the impact of the epidemic on the express delivery industry was relatively short.As the prevention and control policies were gradually lifted in various regions and the resumption of work and production was accelerated,Chinese express delivery industry would return to the normal development track and maintain positive returns in the long run.Finally,the individual fixed effect model was used to explore the relationship between the occurrence and development of the epidemic and the return of the express industry,and it was found that the growth rate of the newly confirmed number and the stock return showed a reverse U-shaped relationship,while the growth rate of the newly confirmed number and the return showed a U-shaped relationship.Accordingly,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of the industry from the views of the government,companies and investors.