| Against the backdrop of global economic turmoil and questioning of the international monetary system,China has always adhered to opening up to the outside world and embarked on the path of RMB internationalization.Cross border trade of RMB,as the first and most important step of RMB internationalization,has rapidly expanded its business scale since its pilot establishment in 2009,and its proportion in China’s trade has been increasing day by day.Although the internationalization process of the RMB continues to accelerate with the rapid development of the economy,there is still a significant gap in the usage share and scope of the RMB compared to the major international currencies such as the US dollar and euro.It is still a long way to go for the RMB to become the world’s main reserve and pricing and settlement currency.Exploring the influencing factors of cross-border trade RMB settlement is of great significance to reality.Although many scholars at home and abroad have studied the impact of economic development on cross-border trade settlement in RMB,specifically,there are issues such as a lack of accuracy in indicator construction and a wide range of sample selection,which makes it difficult to accurately measure the impact of econo micindicators on cross-border trade settlement in RMB.This article draws on the theoretical foundation of new economic geography and incorporates regional interactions into the research scope,empirically testing the impact of market potential on cross-border trade settlement in RMB.This article constructs market potential variables and uses cross-border trade RMB settlement data from 31 provinces from 2011 to 2020 to conduct empirical research,exploring the impact of market potential on cross-border trade RMB,and exploring its impact mechanism.The research results indicate that:(1)cross-border trade RMB settlement business personnel have developed rapidly,but the internationalization level of RMB is still relatively low,with significant regional differences.The eastern region is significantly str onger than the central and western regions.(2)The market potential will promote the development of cross-border trade settlement in RMB through trade creation effects,market confidence effects,foreign investment attraction effects,and financial development effects.(3)There is a non-linear relationship between market potential and the impact of cross-border trade settlement in RMB.(4)There is spatial and policy heterogeneity in the market potential impact of cross-border trade in RMB settlement.Specifically,the market potential has no significant impact on the cross-border trade settlement of RMB in the central region,but has a strong promoting effect in the eastern region,while it is relatively weak in the western region;The construction of free trade pilot zones and the hosting of China International Import Expo play an important role in promoting cross-border trade settlement in RMB with market potential.Based on the above research conclusions,this article proposes several suggestions:(1)Adjust the industrial structure according to local conditions and fully tap the potential of the domestic market.(2)Develop high-quality foreign trade and enhance the international competitiveness of the RMB.(3)Improve the level of financial development and improve the RMB exchange rate system.(4)Adhere to the combination of theory and practice,and leverage national innovation policies to promote cross-border trade in RMB settlement. |
