Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Cross-border Trade Settlement In RMB

Affected by the global economic crisis,the existing international monetary system has exposed more and more internal defects.In order to cope with this situation,the Chinese government began trials of cross-border yuan trade settlement business in 2009.With the increasing scope of trial operations for cross-border yuan trade settlement,the related infrastructure has also been gradually improved,and various advantages have enabled the scale of cross-border yuan trade settlement to expand rapidly.However,starting from the second half of 2015,the cross-border yuan trade settlement fell sharply after peaking and then fluctuating at low levels.Of the many factors that affect cross-border yuan trade settlement,the exchange rate of RMB is undoubtedly the one that can have a significant impact.Due to the dramatic fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate caused by the "811" exchange reform,it has a direct and dramatic impact on the cross-border yuan trade settlement.Studying the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border yuan trade settlement has significant implications both for the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and for the promotion of yuan-internationalization.Starting from the theory of settlement currency selection,this thesis combines Keynesian money demand theory to propose the mechanism of the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border yuan trade settlement,and on the basis of summarizing relevant experiences in the internationalization of the yen and the euro and the status of cross-border trade settlement.Econometric methods have been empirically tested the effects of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border yuan trade settlement.The thesis is divided into six parts.The first part is the introduction,mainly related to the research background,research significance,the domestic and foreign related research,the main frame of this thesis,as well as innovations and deficiencies.The second part is the theoretical mechanism,which proposes two major factors of exchange rate affecting the choice of cross-border currency trade settlement.On the basis of the theory of settlement currency selection and the Keynesian theory of money demand,it summarized the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the cross-border yuan trade settlement;the third part is the international experience from the study of the yen and the euro as the settlement currency subject to exchange rate fluctuations.From the starting point of impact,the general experience of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the size of the settlement currency will be summarized to provide a certain reference and study for the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border yuan trade settlement;The fourth part is the analysis of the status quo.It mainly analyzes the development trend of the RMB exchange rate,summarizes its fluctuation characteristics,and on this basis,analyzes the development status of the cross-border yuan trade settlement in the same period,and theoretically analyzes the impact of the former on the latter.The fifth part is empirical analysis,which mainly uses the vector autoregressive model to quantitatively analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border yuan trade settlement.The empirical results show that RMB exchange rate fluctuations have short-term negative effects on cross-border yuan trade settlement.The appreciation of RMB is conducive to the development of cross-border yuan trade settlement.The sixth part proposes countermeasures and recommendations.According to the results of empirical analysis,relevant countermeasures and suggestions on the further development of cross-border yuan trade settlement are proposed in the aspects of the reform of exchange rate marketization,the construction of offshore market,the regulation of capital cross-border and interest,and the structure of import and export industries.