Empirical Research Of The Influence On RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement By The Yuan’s Appreciation

RMB cross-border trade settlement, as a breakthrough for the internationalizationof RMB, has passed four years since it started. Although it has accounted for17%ofChina’s total volume of trade，achieving a remarkably growth，there are some faultscontrary with the original intentions. Under the background of excess liquidityglobally leaded by Quantitative Easig and the groom of European debt crisis, China’spower of economic and trade has risen steadily with huge foreign exchange reserves,making the yuan to appreciate.This article summarizes the development course of RMB cross-border tradesettlement and existing problems, then analyze the mechanism of the RMB–appreciation’s influence on the yuan cross-border trade settlement theoretically, witha impact of "double-edged sword". And use the co-integration test and VECM tocheck the short-term and long-term relationship between the two research variables.Results indicate that the stable equilibrium relationship in long-term between them,and the dynamic-correcting mechanism of adjustment from volatility of short-term tolong-term equilibrium automaticly have existed. The appreciation of yuan have asignificant impact on the RMB cross-border trade settlement with a lag effect, provingthat the appreciation of yuan has significantly affected the ratio of RMB used in tradesettlement. Finally, several policy suggestions about improving the formingmechanism reform of the exchange rate, accelerating the construction of China’sfinancial market and promoting the construction of offshore RMB market have beengiven.