Research On The Potential And Influencing Factors Of China’s Digital Trade Export To G20 Countries

The vigorous development of digital trade has become an important strategic deployment to promote China’s opening-up towards a better,deeper,and higher level in the new pattern of "dual circulation" development.However,China’s digital trade export level is still in the exploratory stage,and there is a significant gap compared to digital trade powers.Therefore,China’s digital trade export opportunities and challenges coexist,and the cooperation between China and G20 countries has added new impetus to the development of China’s digital trade export,and also brought huge opportunities for the development of China’s digital trade.Therefore,in-depth exploration of the potential and influencing factors of China’s digital trade exports to countries along the G20 has important practical significance for expanding the scale of China’s digital trade exports to G20 countries and optimizing the structure of digital trade exports.This article measures the export scale of digital trade between China and G20 countries from 2007 to 2019,and analyzes the current situation of China’s digital trade exports to importing countries from the perspectives of export scale and export structure.The random frontier Gravity model is constructed through the total GDP of China and G20 countries,the total population of each country,and the geographical distance between the two sides.The applicability of the model is tested for the existence of non efficiency items that change with time.Based on the fixed broadband penetration rate,fixed telephone penetration rate,logistics performance index,proportion of ICT service exports,Internet penetration rate,foreign trade dependence,institutional distance,and whether to sign a regional trade agreement,this paper constructs a trade inefficiency model to study China’s export potential and influencing factors to G20 countries’ digital trade,and conducts robustness test and heterogeneity analysis.The research conclusions are as follows: Firstly,overall,the average export efficiency of China’s digital trade with G20 countries is 0.49,which is in a state of insufficient exports.China is a country with expanding export potential to Germany,India,Saudi Arabia,and South Korea,while the remaining 14 countries are all countries with huge export potential.Secondly,from the perspective of economic scale,the total GDP of G20 countries and the total population of China have a promoting effect on it;From other factors,whether to sign regional trade agreements,logistics performance index,proportion of ICT service exports,internet penetration rate,and foreign trade dependence are all factors that promote China’s digital trade exports to G20 countries.Thirdly,there is heterogeneity in China’s potential for digital trade exports to G20 countries,indicating a significant impact on non RCEP trade exports,while the effect on RCEP countries is not significant.