| China's national economy has registered stable performance with good momentum for growth and the foreign economy maintains a good momentum of sustained and stable development,as the recovery of the world economy and the foreign trades among nations and regions are more frequent.With the constantly propelling to implement the China's strategy of the “Go Out” and the “Belt and Road” initiative and the improvement of host country trade and investment facilitation,the trade and investment cooperation between China and other countries has grew.China is exploring a new cooperation pattern with foreign markets at present.Along with the expansion of a series of special construction and cooperation,not only the advantages of manufacturing and infrastructure construction are released in China,but also the new development powers of electronic information technology,environmental protection of energy,ocean engineering and culture education are provided.The expansion of a series of special construction and cooperation can also increase the trade and direct investment scale between China and other countries.But the unilateralism and protectionism have emerged in the international market against the background of world economic recovery.The escalated global trade and investment frictions not only restrained the sustained and steady growth of international trade and investment,but also posed huge challenges to China's export trade and direct investment.Facing the development trend of integration of trade and investment and the new complicated situations of international and domestic market,China should increase the export trade and foreign direct investment scale for the countries which are low efficiency in export trade and foreign direct investment but have large potential.The reasonable location precision of export trade and investment location should be chose based on the host country's trade and investment facilitation conditions.Based on the pertinent literature,the researches of export trade and OFDI(outward foreign direct investment)potential are almost focus on the influence of infrastructure quality,tariff level,free trade agreement and customs clearance procedure burden to potential.Few studies have research the export trade and foreign direct investment potential from the perspective of the trade and investment facilitation.Under the background of deepening trade and investment integration,the study based on the perspective of trade and investment facilitation has certain practical and theoretical significance.So,this dissertation studies the potential of China's export trade and OFDIfrom the perspective of trade and investment facilitation.Specifically,it is mainly developed along the following train of thought.(1)Research on the mechanism of trade and investment facilitation affecting the export trade and OFDI.Firstly,the mechanism of the establishment of the indicator system of trade and investment facilitation is analyzed from the general relationship theory of international trade and international direct investment and the connotation overlap of trade facilitation and investment facilitation.Secondly,the mechanisms of the trade and investment facilitation affecting export trade potential and OFDI potential are analyzed.(2)Establishment and measurement analysis of trade and investment facilitation index system.Firstly,the research results of international organizations on trade facilitation and investment facilitation are analyzed.Secondly,the trade and investment facilitation system is established on the basis of the existing studies.Finally,the trade and investment facilitation levels and primary indicators of each country are researched.(3)Empirical analysis on the impact of trade and investment facilitation on China's export trade potential.Firstly,the effect of host country's trade and investment facilitation on export trade efficiency loss is researched by the stochastic frontier trade gravity model.And China's export trade efficiency and potential are predicted.Secondly,the China's export trade potential of total sample and sub-samples(developed and developing countries,the Belt and Road countries and non-Belt and Road countries)are analyzed based on the perspective of trade and investment facilitation.(4)Empirical analysis on the impact of trade and investment facilitation on China's OFDI potential.Firstly,the effect of host country's trade and investment facilitation on OFDI efficiency loss is research by the stochastic frontier investment gravity model.And China's OFDI efficiency and potential are predicted.Secondly,the China's OFDI potential of total sample and sub-samples(developed and developing countries,the Belt and Road countries and non-Belt and Road countries)are analyzed based on the perspective of trade and investment facilitation.The conclusions were summarized as follows:Firstly,the host countries' trade and investment facilitation level have been on the rise from 2007 to 2016,but the trade and investment facilitation level of most countries are still at a low level.The trade and investment facilitation level of all countries in the world still needs to be improved.In addition,indicators of infrastructure quality,market access and science and technology level were all on the rise from 2007 to 2016,while indicators of business environment and political environment were on the decline.In the indicators system for trade and investment facilitation,the institutional environment has the largestweight,followed by the scientific and technological environment,the business environment,the quality of infrastructure,the customs environment and the political environment,while the market access has a minimum weight.Compared with the trade and investment facilitation level of developed countries and developing countries,the trade and investment facilitation level of developing countries changed little from 2007 to 2016,but the developed countries showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2016.Overall,the trade and investment facilitation level of developed countries is higher than developing countries.The infrastructure quality,institutional environment,scientific and technological environment,customs environment and business environment of developed countries are obviously higher than developing countries,while market access and political environment conditions are similar to developing countries.From the trend of trade and investment facilitation level of the Belt and Road countries,we can see that the trade and investment facilitation level of the Belt and Road countries showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2016.Secondly,from the influencing factors of China's export trade frontier level,the China and host countries' economic scales have positive impact on China's export trade.The host countries' population sizes promote China's export trade,while China's population size inhibits its own export trade.Bilateral geographical distance is negatively correlated with China's export trade.When China and trading countries have common language and common borders,it is conducive to increase China's export trade.The export trade efficiency loss is the main reason of preventing the export trade potential implementation.And the host country's trade and investment facilitation have a positively correlated with China's export trade efficiency loss.From the analysis of seven primary indexes,the host countries' institutional environment did not show the steady relationship with export trade efficiency losses.And the host countries' infrastructure quality,market access and science and technology environmental are positively correlated with China's export trade efficiency loss.The host countries' customs environment,business environment and political environment are negatively correlated with China's export trade efficiency loss.From 2007 to 2016,the China' average annual export trade efficiency is low,but the China's export trade potential is on the rise.Compared with developed countries and developing countries,the export trade efficiency of China to developed countries is lower than developing countries,and China's export trade potential to developed countries is higher than developing countries.Although China's export trade potential to developedcountries is greater,the China's export trade potential growth rate is faster than developing countries.From the comparison between the Belt and Road countries and non-Belt and Road countries,China's export trade efficiency to the Belt and Road countries is lower,and the China's export trade potential growth rate to the Belt and Road countries is higher than non-Belt and Road countries.In the Belt and Road countries,China's export trade potential is quite different.From the regional distribution,China's export trade potential to Southeast Asia is relatively high.China's export potential to West Asia and North Africa is relatively low.Therefore,compared with West Asia and North Africa,China should increase its export trade to the Southeast Asian countries in the Belt and Road.Thirdly,from the influencing factors of the China's OFDI frontier level,the economic scale of China and the host country is positively correlated with China's OFDI,while the bilateral geographical distance is negatively correlated with China's OFDI.In addition,whether the two sides have common language,whether the two sides have common border and host countries' natural resources and environment are positively correlated with China's OFDI.The OFDI efficiency loss is the most important factor hindering the realization of OFDI potential.Through the further study on the factors influencing China's OFDI efficiency loss,it is found that trade and investment facilitation does not show a significant relationship with the OFDI efficiency loss.The analysis of seven first-level indicators shows that: infrastructure environment and market access are positively correlated with China's OFDI efficiency loss.The institutional environment,customs environment,business environment and political environment are negatively correlated with China's OFDI efficiency loss.The relationship between the science and technology environmental and China's OFDI efficiency loss is not stable.From 2007 to 2016,China's OFDI efficiency decreased year by year,and China's OFDI potential increased year by year within 10 years,but the growth rate fluctuated greatly.Overall,China's direct investment efficiency in most countries is low which indicating that China's OFDI still has a lot of room to expand.A comparative analysis of China's OFDI potential and China's export trade potential shows that,China's OFDI potential is rising more rapidly than export trade.Compared with developed countries and developing countries,there is a big gap for China's direct investment efficiency and potential in developed countries and developing countries.Although China's overall OFDI efficiency is low,China's OFDI in developed countries is lower than developing countries.While the actual value of China's OFDI in developed countries is much higher thandeveloping countries,China's OFDI in developed countries still has huge potential.From the comparison of the Belt and Road countries and non-Belt and Road countries,China's OFDI potential in the Belt and Road countries is more prominent.However,the China's OFDI potential level in the selected the Belt and Road countries is uneven,which directly leads to the uneven distribution of investment pattern.The China's OFDI potential in Southeast Asian countries are relatively large.The OFDI potential in CEE countries are relatively small.According to the above empirical results,there are some suggestions:(1)Participate in and promote the reform of trade and investment facilitation in host countries actively.Assist in improving the customs and business environment of the host countries,increasing investment in infrastructure development in the host countries,and the reasonable negotiations should be conducted with the host country to create favorable market access conditions.(2)Look into the trade and investment facilitation environment and then make reasonable project,increasing the scale of export trade and OFDI.(3)Promote the “Belt and Road” initiative,make more exchange of information to shape a new pattern of trade and investment cooperation. |
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