Research On The Impact Of Rural Labor Mobility On The Savings Rate Of Rural Residents

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has developed rapidly,expanding the employment scope and income channels of rural labor.The transformation of industrial structure,the development of county-level economy have led to changes in the flow structure of labor force in China.The flow of rural labor force has shown a new trend,shifting from cross provincial flow to within the province and intra county flow.The flow of rural labor is directly reflected in changes in the income and consumption levels of rural residents,which in turn profoundly affects the savings level of rural residents.Saving is an important source of investment and the opportunity cost of consumption,which is crucial to China’s economic development.Therefore,this article studies the impact of rural labor mobility on the savings rate of rural residents in China.At the same time,based on the current situation of changes in the structure of rural labor mobility,the overall rural labor mobility is further divided into three categories: intra county mobility,outside the county and intra provincial mobility,inter provincial mobility.On the basis of summarizing relevant research results,this paper uses the two-way fixed effect model to study the impact of rural labor mobility on rural residents’ savings rate and the impact of different mobility scopes of rural labor on rural residents’ savings rate according to the panel data of 30 provinces,cities and autonomous regions(excluding Tibet)from 2010 to 2020;The robustness of the empirical results is tested by using the system GMM model and the explained variables;On the basis of this research,the mechanism by which rural labor mobility affects the savings rate of rural residents was further tested;Finally,the country will be divided into three regions: east,central,and west,and regional heterogeneity will be analyzed and studied.The research results indicate that:(1)There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between rural labor mobility and rural residents’ savings rate in China;Furthermore,from the perspective of different mobility ranges,there is a "U-shaped" relationship between the intra county mobility of rural labor and the savings rate of rural residents.There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the outside the county but intra provincial mobility of rural labor and the savings rate of rural residents.The impact of cross provincial mobility of rural labor on the savings rate of rural residents is not significant.(2)The mechanism test results show that:(1)The relationship between rural labor mobility and rural residents’ income is a "U-shaped" relationship,and the relationship between rural labor mobility and rural residents’ consumption is a "U-shaped" relationship.In the negative impact stage,the negative impact on consumption is greater than the negative impact on income,leading to an increase in the savings rate of rural residents;In the positive impact stage,the positive impact on consumption is greater than the positive impact on income,resulting in a decrease in the savings rate of rural residents.(2)Furthermore,from the perspective of different mobility ranges,the impact of rural labor mobility within counties on rural residents’ income is not significant,there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the flow of rural labor within the county and the consumption of rural residents,which leads to the first decrease and then an increase in rural residents’ savings;The impact mechanism of rural labor mobility outside the county and within the province on the savings rate of rural residents is the same as that of overall labor mobility on the savings rate of rural residents.(3)The improvement of rural residents’ education level will enhance the positive impact of rural labor force mobility within counties and outside the counties and within the provinces on the savings rate of rural residents,while the negative impact will weaken.(3)The results of regional heterogeneity analysis indicate that:(1)in the eastern region,the impact of rural labor mobility on the savings rate of rural residents is not significant;Furthermore,the intra county and outside the county and intra provincial mobility of rural labor in the region has no significant impact on the savings rate of rural residents,while inter provincial mobility will reduce the savings rate of rural residents.(2)In the central region,there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between rural labor mobility and rural residents’ savings rate;Furthermore,the intra county mobility of rural labor in the region will increase the savings rate of rural residents,while outside the county and intra provincial mobility will reduce the savings rate of rural residents.There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the inter provincial mobility of rural labor and the savings rate of rural residents.(3)In the western region,there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between rural labor mobility and rural residents’ savings rate;Furthermore,there is a "U-shaped" relationship between the intra county mobility of rural labor and the savings rate of rural residents in the region,while the impact of outside the county and intra provincial and inter provincial mobility of rural labor on the savings rate of rural residents is not significant.Finally,based on relevant research conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to guide the rational flow of rural labor and adjust the rural savings rate to a reasonable range.