| In recent years,the "Indo-Pacific" region has become a strategic area for the game of great powers,and countries around the world have carried out different geostrategic concepts around this region.In 2017,Trump formally proposed the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and set his sights on the Indian Ocean region.In the same year,he established a quadrilateral cooperation mechanism(QUAD)with Japan,India,and Australia,and carried out bilateral cooperation in different fields such as economy,diplomacy,and military affairs.,trilateral and quadrilateral cooperation.In the "Indo-Pacific" region,India is a major country that cannot be ignored.Under the wooing of the United States,the bilateral strategic relationship between India and the United States has gradually deepened out of consideration of common interests.In2020,the two countries formally established a comprehensive global strategic partnership.Economic and trade cooperation has also continued to expand.In 2021,India-US trade will exceed the $100 billion mark,reaching $117.149 billion.In this context,this paper will sort out the status of bilateral trade between India and the United States from the aspects of the development history,current situation,competitiveness and complementarity analysis,influencing factors,and empirical analysis of the stochastic frontier gravity model,and measure its trade potential.At the same time,relevant enlightenment to China is put forward.First of all,this article will sort out the development process of India-US economic and trade relations in stages,then analyze the current situation of India-US trade development,and analyze the competitiveness and complementarity characteristics of the bilateral trade through trade evaluation indicators,and then explore the influencing factors of the development of India-US trade.The development of India-US economic and trade relations is mainly divided into four stages,including the initial development stage(1947-1965),the tortuous development stage(1965-1991),the continuous development stage(1991-2014)and the rapid development stage(2014-to date).From the perspective of trade scale,the overall bilateral trade volume between India and the United States has maintained an upward trend,and the growth rate has been obvious,but the trade deficit between the United States and India has also continued to expand,laying hidden dangers for bilateral trade frictions;from the perspective of trade status,whether it is the import market or the In the export market,the United States ranks first or second in the partner countries in the Indian market,while India ranks relatively low in the US market,ranking ninth and tenth respectively.It can be seen that the trade status is quite different.From the perspective of trade structure,the import and export products of India and the United States are mostly industrial products.Among them,the four types of products imported from India to the United States,SITC3,SITC5,SITC6,and SITC7,account for a large proportion.From 2007 to 2021,India’s imports from the United States accounted for a large proportion The largest industry has changed from a capital or technology-intensive industry to a natural resource-intensive industry,and SITC6 accounts for the largest share of India’s exports to the United States,and labor-intensive industries have always maintained the largest share of exports.From the perspective of competitiveness and complementarity analysis,according to the analysis of the revealed comparative advantage index,India and the United States have comparative advantages in SITC0,SITC2,and SITC5 products,so there is competition.In SITC1,SITC3 and SITC6,SITC8,The five types of SITC9 products are complementary,and the two types of products,SITC4 and SITC7,have not had obvious competition and complementarity in recent years.According to the analysis of the trade complementarity index,taking India as an exporting country,India and the United States show stable complementarity in the three types of products of SITC5,SITC6 and SITC8.SITC2,SITC3,SITC5 and SITC6 are highly complementary and stable overall.Judging from the comprehensive trade complementarity index between India and the United States,the overall bilateral trade between India and the United States shows strong complementarity,but there is a weakening trend.According to the analysis of the intra-industry trade index,the overall level of intra-industry trade in India-US bilateral trade is relatively high,especially in the four categories of products SITC2,SITC3,SITC5,and SITC7.The factors promoting bilateral trade between India and the United States are the strong complementarity of bilateral trade between India and the United States,multi-field trade cooperation relations and prosperous bilateral relations,while the restricting factors are the differences in perceptions of "Indo-Pacific" and China between India and the United States,similar domestic Political views,frequent trade frictions and India-Russia relations.Secondly,this paper constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model,and introduces investment freedom,financial freedom,trade freedom,liner shipping related index and government efficiency level as trade inefficiency factors to construct a trade inefficiency item model,and demonstrates that per capita GDP,The total population,trade freedom,liner shipping related index and government effectiveness of trading partner countries promote bilateral trade,while the total population,geographical distance,investment freedom and financial freedom of the United States hinder bilateral trade.From 2007 to 2021,the trade efficiency between India and the United States is between 0.158 and 0.223,showing a steady upward trend,but the change range is small,indicating that the non-efficiency factors of trade have not been improved.Bilateral trade potential is also on the rise,and the value of expandable trade potential has increased from 220 billion US dollars to 400 billion US dollars,indicating that there is huge potential in India-US bilateral trade.Finally,through the analysis of the development dynamics and influencing factors of bilateral trade between India and the United States,as well as the empirical analysis of the potential of bilateral trade between India and the United States,the basic conclusions of this paper are given,and the limitations of the study are explained. |
