An Empirical Study On The Potential Of Agricultural Trade Between China And India

China has become the second largest trading partner of more than 70 countries,and the first largest trading partner of more than 120 countries.The mutual benefits of trade are beneficial to large trading nations and even more so to small trading nations.2020 will see China once again become India’s largest trading partner.Agriculture is strategically important for China and India as they are the top two countries in the world in terms of population,together accounting for more than one-third of the global population.China’s trade in agricultural products grew more than eightfold from$30.842 billion in 2001 to $257.858 billion in 2020.India’s agricultural trade of US$62.146 billion in 2020 is more than six times the US$10.035 billion agricultural trade in 2001,and the share of China’s agricultural trade in world agricultural trade increased from 3.07% in 2001 to 8.59% in 2020,while the share of India’s agricultural trade in world agricultural trade also increased from 1.00% in 2001 to 2.07% in 2020.Thus,it is easy to see that agricultural trade is an important part of international trade between China and India,as well as an important part of world agricultural trade.Therefore,an in-depth study of the current situation of agricultural trade between China and India and the potential of China’s agricultural export trade to India is necessary.By combing relevant domestic and foreign literature as well as outlining trade theories,this paper uses statistical data to study the current situation of China’s trade in agricultural products to India in terms of trade importance,total trade volume and trade structure,using China as the reporting country.Then,the trade data of China-India agricultural products trade from 2001 to 2020 in the United Nations Trade Database(UN COMTRADE)are selected to calculate trade indicators such as the display comparative advantage index(RCA),export similarity index(S),intra-industry trade index(IIT)and trade complementarity index(TCI)of China-India agricultural products trade to qualitatively analyze the potential of China-India agricultural products trade.Finally,by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model,the trade efficiency and potential of China’s agricultural exports to India are analyzed empirically.Based on the above qualitative and empirical analysis results,this paper proposes countermeasures for tapping the trade potential of China’s agricultural exports to India.This paper has been studied and found.First,the agricultural trade between China and India is close and the volume of agricultural trade between the two countries is growing rapidly.However,China still faces a deficit in the agricultural trade between China and India,and the value of the deficit continues to increase.At the same time,the types of agricultural trade between China and India are relatively concentrated and the trade structure is unreasonable.Secondly,by calculating the trade indexes such as display comparative advantage index(RCA),export similarity index(S),intra-industry trade index(IIT)and trade complementarity index(TCI),this paper finds that the number of agricultural products with comparative advantage in China and India is basically the same,but each of them has different types of agricultural products with comparative advantage,and the degree of comparative advantage of these types of agricultural products varies There are differences in the degree of comparative advantages of these agricultural products.From the overall trend,the export similarity index of China and India is decreasing,which indicates that the structure of agricultural export trade between China and India is gradually very different,and the competition between China and India in the global market is eased.Again,the proportion of intraindustry trade in China-India agricultural trade is not high,and most of the agricultural trade is conducted between industries.Both the trade complementarity index between Chinese exports and Indian imports and the trade complementarity index between Indian exports and Chinese imports show strong complementarity.In terms of specific types of agricultural products,China and India have strong complementarities in a wide range of agricultural products.China’s agricultural trade with India is both competitive and complementary.On the whole,the complementarity of China-India agricultural trade is greater than the competition,and the trade competition of China-India agricultural products has eased in recent years,but its complementarity has not been fully developed,and there is still great potential for the development of China-India agricultural trade.Finally,the regression results of the stochastic frontier gravity model show that the per capita GDP of China and India and the population size of India have a pulling effect on China’s agricultural trade,but the population size of China and the geographical distance between the two countries’ capitals will hinder the development of agricultural trade.The regression results of the trade inefficiency model indicate that factors such as joining the World Trade Organization,trade freedom and regulatory quality can improve trade efficiency,which in turn can boost China’s agricultural export trade growth.However,the effects of investment freedom and political stability on trade are inconsistent with the expected direction and have a negative impact on trade efficiency.Based on the research findings,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: optimize the structure of agricultural exports;improve the level of intraindustry trade of agricultural products;and improve the mechanism of regional economic cooperation.