Study On The Decomposition Of Energy Saving And Emission Reduction Structure And The Potential Assessment Model Of China

With the continuous development of the social economy,the environmental issues brought about by human energy consumption have gradually become the focus of attention,and controlling fossil energy emissions has become an international consensus.As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide emitter,China is facing arduous energy-saving and emission reduction tasks.At the United Nations General Assembly in 2020,China proposed the "30 and 60 carbon targets",that is,carbon emissions will reach the peak by 2030,and carbon neutrality will be achieved by 2060.The "14th Five Year Plan" and the "15th Five Year Plan" are the key periods to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.By fully utilizing the practical guiding role of energy conservation and emission reduction decomposition analysis,and evaluating the potential for future energy conservation and emission reduction,we can better promote China’s green and low-carbon development process,which is of great significance for implementing the dual carbon goals.Based on this,this article conducts a study on the decomposition and potential assessment of energy conservation and emission reduction structures in the entire society of China.The main content of this article is as follows.Firstly,a multi-layer energy-saving and emission reduction factor decomposition model based on Kaya’s identity was constructed.In terms of emission reduction,a carbon emission structure decomposition model was constructed from the perspective of energy supply.In terms of energy conservation,a decomposition model of terminal energy consumption structure was constructed from the perspective of energy demand.Based on the proposed model,the LMDI decomposition method is used to decompose the energy conservation and emission reduction structure of the entire society in China,and identify the main driving factors for energy conservation and emission reduction in China.Secondly,an inter provincial classification model based on energy-saving and emission reduction characteristics was constructed.With the main driving factors of energy consumption and emission growth and energy conservation and emission reduction in each province as the clustering variables,the spectral clustering algorithm is used to cluster the main provinces,extract the characteristics of energy conservation and emission reduction in different regions,and summarize the modes of energy conservation and emission reduction in different regions.Finally,a carbon emission prediction model based on STIRPAT and an energy conservation and emission reduction potential evaluation model based on unexpected output SBM were constructed.In combination with the energy conservation and emission reduction models obtained from the inter provincial clustering,we set different oriented energy conservation and emission reduction scenarios such as electric energy substitution,industrial structure adjustment,and clean energy development,predict energy carbon emissions under different energy conservation and emission reduction scenarios,so as to assess the impact of different energy conservation and emission reduction measures on China’s energy conservation and emission reduction potential,and propose suggestions on carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This article constructs a multi-layer energy-saving and emission reduction structural decomposition model based on Kaya’s identity from the perspective of both energy supply and demand.By decomposing the changes in China’s energy carbon emissions and terminal energy consumption,identifying the main driving factors affecting energy conservation and emission reduction can help clarify the focus of future energy conservation and emission reduction policy layout.On the other hand,this article analyzes the impact of different energy-saving and emission reduction measures on the energy-saving and emission reduction potential by constructing a prediction model for energy carbon emissions and an evaluation model for energy-saving and emission reduction potential based on unexpected output,which can provide a certain theoretical reference for future energy-saving and emission reduction policies in China.