Industrialization, Urbanization And Regional Carbon Emissions Reduction Policy Choice

China’s industrialization and urbanization is rapid development, but its carbon emission has become a growing problem. As regional economic development is extremely uneven, regional carbon emissions characteristics are also different under the rapid industrialization and urbanization development stage. Combining the characteristics of China’s regional carbon emission in its industrialization and urbanization economic development stage, this paper will probe regional carbon emissions reduction policy choice.At first, based on statistical analysis and region division, this paper analyzes regional carbon emissions’feature in the aspect of both absolute and mutative values. On carbon emissions region division, you should synthesize carbon emission, energy index, population, economic and so on. Combining the characteristics of China’s regional carbon emission in its economic development stage, this paper distinguishes between the production department and residents department, and selects four relative indicators directly related to carbon emissions, based on the provincial data from1995to2010, proposes the multivariate panel data clustering analysis method, and divides30provinces into four carbon emissions area such as higher proportion of heavy energy, high proportion of heavy energy, higher energy intensity and high energy intensity. The result shows:China’s carbon emissions regional differentiation is very serious.Secondly this paper proves LMDI’s additive form is consistent in aggregation, then uses this property to propose the LMDI "two-level perfect decomposition" method applying to decompose carbon emission into seven factors effect, such as economic scale, population scale, composition of urban and rural population, residents’living standard, carbon emissions density, economic scale and energy intensity. This paper defines the carbon emissions’theoretical increase as the sum of former four effects, theoretical decrease as the sum of later three effacts, and reduction potential coefficient as the rato of theoretical decrease and theoretical increase. This paper implements carbon emission of7sectors in30provinces from1995-2010, and finds the result:(1) economic scale and energy intensity effect are not only the main factors effect on our country’s carbon emissions, but also are the primary cause of significant difference between regional carbon emissions.(2) Carbon emission reduction potential and space is difference, and the central and western regions’ carbon emission reduction potential, such as Yunnan, is larger.At last, based on LMDI "two-level perfect decomposition" method and the carbon emissions and related data in7industries of30provinces from1995-2010, this paper focus on calculating and analysis of the industrialization’s and urbanization’s marginal carbon emissions in China. This paper uses the marginal effect relationship of industrial scale expansion, changes in the proportion of the industrial sector and carbon emissions to deduce reginal industrialization’s dynamic marginal carbon emissions; likewise, uses the marginal effect relationship of the proportion of the urban population, commercial scale expansion and carbon emissions to deduce reginal urbanization’s dynamic marginal carbon emissions. The result shows:(1) Nationwide, as the industrial sector increased by1percentage point, carbon emissions will be increased by an average of30MT (million tons) in recent years. As the proportion of the industrial sector increased by1percentage point, carbon emissions will be increased by37MT in1996,87MT in2010, and54MT in average.(2) As the commercial sector increased by1million, carbon emissions will be increased by an average of0.7tons. As the proportion of the urban population increased by1percentage point, carbon emissions will be increased by5.7MT in1996,7.2MT in2010, and6.5MT in average.(3) Specifically, there are very serious differences between the regional industrialization’s and urbanization’s marginal carbon emissions, and every region should set common but differentiated carbon emissions reduction policies. On the one hand, every region should rely mainly on energy conservation, while adjusting the heavy Chemical industry growth rate to harmonize with energy and environment. On the other hand, according to each situation, every region should reasonably determine its industrialization and urbanization speed, and play an active role for promoting the regional "Carbon Emissions Trading System".