Agricultural Carbon Emission Prediction And Emission Reduction Path Design In Hebei Province

Hebei province is a major agricultural production base in North China, as well as one of the great province of China's grain production. In recent years, due to global warming and environmental pollution is a growing problem, and carbon emissions issues become a hot topic. Agriculture has more positive externalities on reducing carbon emissions and reduce pollution caused by agricultural farmland than industry, and reduction of agriculture carbon emissions contribute to maintaining soil fertility to ensure food safety. Hebei province's agricultural production continued to grow in recent years, as well as carbon emissions. But cultivated land area remained stable over the years, so agricultural 's booming production is based on the excessive use of pesticide, fertilizer and other materials, which result in agricultural pollution problems, such pattern of development is not sustainable. Therefore, the article calculates Hebei agricultural emissions and analyzes the impact of agricultural emissions and future trends in carbon emissions in the angle of low carbon economy, then finds method to improve agricultural production efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in agriculture according to the results, so as to transforming agriculture in Hebei province high input and high emission patterns, improving farmers income and agricultural sustainable development relevance.Specific content and conclusions of this study are as follows:First, the article built agricultural carbon emissions accounting framework based on IPCC greenhouse gas listing method, then calculated Hebei province agriculture's carbon emissions status based on Hebei province agriculture's 2005-2013 statistics data; second, the article structured agriculture carbon emissions identities, then applied LMDI factors decomposition method on Hebei province agriculture's carbon emissions to find its drive factors, so as to find agriculture 's main carbon source; again, the article applied grey system model to estimated Hebei province agriculture's future carbon emissions, with witch Hebei province could make agricultural emissions policy; finally, the article analyzed Hebei agricultural carbon emission characteristics and put forward measures to reduce agricultural emissions.This paper form the following conclusions through studying:(1) Hebei province agriculture's carbon intensity(without carbon emission from paddy fields) is at a high level in the country, but carbon footprint decreased over years;(2) The main carbon source of agricultural emissions in Hebei province are agriculturemachines and fertilizers, and agricultural machines mainly accounted for agriculture emissions change;(3) The main driving factor for Hebei agricultural emissions are level of economic development(positive effects) and energy efficiency(negative effects), positive effects are slightly larger than negative effects. Reducing the frequency of fertilizer and intensity of chemical fertilizer is the main way to reduce the agricultural carbon emission effect;(4) Developing precision agriculture can reduce the level of carbon emissions.