Research On Carbon Emission And Potential Of Increasing Carbon Sink And Reduction In Heilongjiang Province

Recently,extreme weather such as extreme heavy rainfall in Henan province and severe heat and drought in the western United States occurred frequently,causing human casualties,agricultural production cuts,extreme fires and other disasters.The frequent occurrence of these extreme disasters is mainly caused by the greenhouse gas effect caused by the increase in carbon emission concentration caused by human activities.At present,As the world’s largest carbon emitter,China has actively participated in international cooperation in the field of carbon reduction,and pledged to strive to achieve a carbon peak around 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Under the situation that carbon emission reduction has become an international hot spot,although scholars pay great attention to the research on carbon emission,few people pay attention to the carbon emission of Heilongjiang province,which is an old industrial base and energy base in northeast China.Heilongjiang province is one of the major provinces in China in terms of energy consumption and carbon emission,and the change of its carbon emission is directly related to whether China can fully achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction.so,studying the carbon emission potential of Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of economic growth is useful to clarify the carbon emission efficiency,driving factors and development trend of Heilongjiang Province,and provide a basis for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies and measures in Heilongjiang Province.Considering the fact that Heilongjiang province is rich in forest resources and forest carbon sink plays a positive role in reducing carbon emissions,this paper studies the potential of increasing carbon sink and reducing emissions in Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of "carbon source"and "carbon sink".By selecting the relevant data from 2010 to 2019,this paper calculates the forest carbon sink,the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province and the three industries,and analyzes that economic output is the main driving factor affecting the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province through Kaya and LMDI models.Tapio model and EKC model are used to explore the development trend of economic development and carbon emissions from linear and curvilinear perspectives,especially the relationship between per capita GDP and carbon peak in Heilongjiang Province.On this basis,the emission reduction potential is analyzed from two aspects.On the one hand,the potential of improving carbon emission efficiency is explored.The gap between Heilongjiang’s carbon emission efficiency and the frontier as well as the relative gap between Heilongjiang and other provinces as the space for improving carbon emission potential;On the other hand,it explores the carbon emission reduction potential under the influence of driving factors such as forest carbon sink,population,energy intensity and economic output.The main work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,forest is the main body of terrestrial ecosystem,and forest carbon sink is the most economical and realistic means to achieve carbon emission reduction,and also one of the important paths to achieve carbon neutrality.In this paper,the status of forest resources in Heilongjiang province,such as forest area,forest stock,afforestation and felling,is sorted out,and the forest carbon sink of Heilongjiang Province is calculated by using the method of upper and lower forest carbon sink,which is the basis for the subsequent research.At the same time,this paper introduces the setting of forest carbon sink targets in relevant documents of China and Heilongjiang Province,and the influence of climate factors,external factors and forest resources on forest carbon sink.The increase of forest carbon sink will help Heilongjiang province to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.Secondly,this paper studies the driving factors of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province,empirically analyzes the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province,and explores the carbon peak status of Heilongjiang province and its three industries.In this paper,Kaya and LMDI models were used to analyze the influence of industrial structure,population,economic output,energy structure and other factors on carbon emissions of Heilongjiang Province and the three industries,and finally determined that economic output was the biggest influencing factor.Tapio decoupling theory is applied to discuss whether the economic development of Heilongjiang Province is synchronized with the change of carbon emission pressure from a linear perspective.EKC theory is also applied to discuss the relationship between per capita GDP growth and carbon emission from a curvilinear perspective,as well as the time and state of carbon peak inflection point in Heilongjiang Province.Macroscopically judge the future development trend of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that the EKC curves of Heilongjiang Province and the three industries showed an inverted u-shaped relationship from 2010 to 2019,and the inflection point of carbon peak appeared in different years.Carbon emissions decreased with the growth of per capita GDP in the study period.In 2007,the secondary industry was the first to reach the inflection point of carbon emissions.Driven by the secondary industry,the inflection point of carbon peak in Heilongjiang province was realized in 2009.The primary industry and tertiary industry reached the inflection point of carbon peak in 2017 and 2015 respectively.Thirdly,this paper uses the three-stage DEA model to measure the gap between The carbon emission efficiency of Heilongjiang Province and the frontier as well as the relative gap between Heilongjiang province and other provinces in China to explore the possibility of improving the potential space of carbon emission efficiency.This paper takes economic output as input to study the carbon emission efficiency of Heilongjiang Province.This paper selects GDP of 30 provinces and cities from 2015 to 2019 as output data,capital stock,labor and carbon emissions as input variables,economic development,import and export volume,and scientific and technological development as environmental variables,and uses three-stage DEA model to construct a calculation model of carbon emission efficiency that can eliminate the influence of external environmental factors and random factors.The carbon emission efficiency level of all provinces and cities in China was calculated.The results show that the average annual carbon emission efficiency of Heilongjiang province is 38.2 percentage points lower than the frontier,ranking 21st among 30 provinces(regions)in China,and the carbon emission efficiency,technical efficiency and scale efficiency of Heilongjiang Province are lower than the average level of all provinces(regions)in China.Carbon efficiency,technical efficiency and scale efficiency in Heilongjiang province are below the national average of different provinces,the relatively backward status of nationwide,but achieve a minimum of 0.586 in 2017 after a rebound rise,with the frontier in narrowing the gap,means that the carbon efficiency of Heilongjiang province to improve space and great potential.Fourthly,based on the development trend of carbon emissions after the realization of carbon peak in Heilongjiang province,this paper uses GM(1,1)model to show a declining trend of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province and the tertiary industries from 2020 to 2030,and uses grey correlation method to analyze the correlation between the tertiary industries and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province.To find out the secondary industry with the highest degree of carbon emission correlation will be the key direction of exploring the potential of carbon emission reduction.In addition to exploring the potential of carbon emission reduction from the perspective of industry,the paper also measured the change trend of forest carbon sink factors and energy consumption,population,industrial structure and other emission reduction factors affecting carbon emission reduction from the perspective of carbon source and carbon sink.It was found that forest carbon sink had the greatest correlation with carbon emission from 2010 to 2019 and was the main force of carbon emission reduction in Heilongjiang Province.The GM(0,N)model was established to predict the change trend of related driving factors,and the grey correlation model was used to analyze the contribution degree of each factor to realizing carbon emission reduction in Heilongjiang Province during 2020-2030.Energy intensity,industrial structure,population and other driving factors with high correlation degree and positive driving effect on carbon emission reduction are taken as the key work of carbon emission reduction potential in Heilongjiang Province.Finally,based on the analysis of carbon emission reduction potential,from the perspective of "carbon source"and " carbon sink",this chapter puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on the development path and safeguard measures of carbon emission reduction in Heilongjiang Province.It will provide reference for Heilongjiang province to develop lowcarbon economy,and ultimately achieve the "dual carbon goal" of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions.