Carbon Emissions During Industrialization Process In China: Affecting Factors, Emission Reduction Potential And Forecast

Global climate change is the most significant environmental problem from now on, also is one of the most complex challenges in the 21st century. In recent years, the world regarded energy saving and emission reduction as one important strategy for energy. China, the largest developing country, in the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009, made specific emission reduction targets:carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2005 will decrease 40% to 50% by 2020. This also brought new opportunities and challenges for China's economic development and environmental improvement. Then because of the characteristics of China's economic development and industrial low-carbon technology requirements, we believe that to research the affecting factors of carbon emission, and to explore decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions have theoretical and practical significance for making emission reduction policies, digging emission reduction potential deeply, achieving a win-win development and emission in industrial sector.Firstly, we use the refined Laspeyres index decomposition method to research the main factors from CO2 emission in industry and analysis the reasons for these differences during the period 1994-2007. Then base on the decoupling theory, we study decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions and the effectiveness of the implementation of emission reduction policy. Then emission reduction potential of sub-industrial sectors was analyzed in a quantitative view. Finally, we use scenario analysis theory to forecast the future energy needs and CO2 emissions in China's industry. The main conclusions are:(ⅰ)Output effect is the dominant positive factor for carbon emissions growth in China's industrial sector, energy intensity effect is the main negative factor for carbon emission reduction. During the period 1994-2007, the impact of the two are respectively 357.20% and -248.67%; The food industry, textile industry, machinery industry and other industries show a decreasing trend in emissions, the emission of oil industry increases the most, up to 217.75%. (ⅱ) During the period 1994-2007 and 2000-2007, decoupling index of carbon emissions from the industrial sector are respectively 0.63 and 0.56. This indicates carbon emissions and economic growth are in the weak decoupling state, and emission reduction policies still lack certain effectiveness, (ⅲ)to dig emission reduction potential of oil and power industry, coal industry and metallurgy industry deeply will be the key to reduce emissions in the industrial sector. (ⅳ)From the view of emission forecasting, during the period of 2008-2020, energy demand and resulting emissions of carbon dioxide will continue to follow the upward trend in China's industrial sector. By 2020 the emissions from the three primary energy consumption will be 177-223 hundreds million tons. This also reflects the urgency of greenhouse gas emissions reduction.