Research On Peanut Price Fluctuation And Influencing Factors In Hebei Province

Peanut price stability is the key factor in the peanut market.Researching the characteristics of peanut price fluctuations and influencing factors is of great significance for stabilizing the income of growers,realizing the rapid development of the peanut industry,and promoting the construction of the oilseed system.This paper takes the peanut price fluctuations and influencing factors in Hebei Province as the research object,using field research,comparative analysis,and H-P filter analysis to explore the fluctuation trend and periodic characteristics of peanut prices in Hebei Province.Based on the theoretical analysis of the factors that cause the price fluctuations of peanuts in Hebei Province from production supply,market demand and other factors,the producer price of peanuts in Hebei Province is used as the dependent variable,and the vector autoregressive model(VAR model)is used to carry out the empirical research.Analyze,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing the price fluctuation of peanuts in Hebei Province based on the conclusions of the research.The research results of this paper show that:(1)Research on the development status of the peanut industry of Hebei Province found that:In 2021,labor costs accounted for 44.84%of total production costs per mu of peanut planting costs,land costs accounted for 19.04%of total production costs,labor costs and land costs accounted for 63.88%proportion of production costs.In the international market,the export volume of peanuts and peanut kernels of Hebei Province reached 53,700 tons in 2001,and declined year by year in the following years,and fell below 10,000 tons in 2010.Hebei Province’s peanut export trade is facing a severe situation.(2)Using the H-P filter analysis method to study the characteristics of peanut price fluctuations in Hebei Province,the results show that:the fluctuation trend of the average selling price of peanuts in Hebei Province is basically consistent with the whole country,Henan Province,Shandong Province and Liaoning Province.From the index of the perspective trend analysis,the price of peanuts in Hebei Province has a long-term trend of steady growth,and is currently in a short term downward and fluctuating stage.From the analysis of cycle components,the price of peanuts in Hebei Province has gone through 4 complete cycles from 2001 to 2019,with an average cycle of 4 years,fluctuations of 20.95%,22.09%,11.09%and 25.29%,and an average expansion period of 2 years.The contraction period is 1.6 years on average,and the volatility has the characteristics of cyclical,strong volatility.And the period of expansion is greater than the period of contraction.The recovery ability is weak.(3)Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of peanut price fluctuations in Hebei Province using the VAR model,the results found that after the independent variables are tested for the stationarity of the first-order difference,the result of the VAR model construction was that the variable changed 1%in the previous period,and the current price of peanut producers in Hebei Province changed 0.749%,0.481%,0.055%,0.003%,0.075%,-0.463%,1.663%and-0.510%.Through the results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,it is found that the main reason for the price fluctuation of peanut producers in Hebei Province is from its own lag period,with a contribution rate of 62.037%.As for the independent variables,the contribution of annual total output,total production cost,and the impact of the disaster-stricken area is more obvious.Disposable income of urban residents and the price of substitutes come in second,with contribution rates of 3.335%and 2.100%respectively.Consumer price index and international market peanut prices have a relatively small impact on the prices of peanut producers in Hebei Province,with a contribution rate of less than 1.000%.The main factor that affects the price fluctuation of peanuts in Hebei Province is itself,followed by the total annual output,total production cost and disaster area.All of which are positive impacts.Need to stabilize the price fluctuations of peanuts in Hebei Province:deepen the study of peanut price cyclical fluctuations and make reasonable price predictions.Use counter-cyclical control measures to increase the income of peanut growers.Regulate peanut price information and correctly guide peanut planting reasonable planting by households.