Analysis Of Price Fluctuations And Price Forecasts For The Wholesale Potato Market In Gansu Province

At present,climate change,natural disasters,economic contraction and regional conflicts and other factors have brought unprecedented impacts on global food supply.The scarcity of domestic resources and the undiversified food cultivation structure have also made food security more prominent.Therefore,to vigorously develop potato industry as an important supplement to food security will be paid more and more attention by the state.Gansu Province,as an important potato producing area,has certain regional advantages in planting scale,industrial layout and economic benefits compared with other major producing areas in the country.The huge production scale can meet the market supply in the province at the same time.Also has a broad export market.In recent years,the potato price in the province has fluctuated sharply,which has seriously affected the production enthusiasm of potato farmers,the normal operation of the market and the healthy development of the potato industry.Therefore,the regularity and characteristics of the potato price fluctuation in the province have been deeply studied,the key factors affecting the potato price fluctuation have been found out,and the price trend has been predicted scientifically and reasonably.It is of great significance to protect the economic interests of potato farmers,help the government understand the market,strengthen macro guidance and management,and promote the stability of potato market price and industrial development.This article used the price of potato wholesale market in Gansu Province from January 2012 to February 2022,including 490 monthly price data,49 quarterly price data and 11 annual price data.The index of volatility intensity was calculated to analyze the annual and quarterly prices.The Census-X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method were used to decompose the quarterly and monthly data into seasonal series,irregular series,trend series and periodic series,and the regularity and characteristics of price fluctuations were quantitatively analyzed.Then the factors affecting the price fluctuation of potato wholesale market in Gansu Province were analyzed qualitatively.Finally,ARIMA model is established to make short-term forecast of monthly prices.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Analyze the price characteristics of different dimensions.Annual price characteristics: From 2012 to 2022,the annual price of potato wholesale market in Gansu Province showed an oscillating upward trend,and the range of fluctuation between adjacent years decreased gradually.Quarterly price characteristics: the price levels from high to low are the first quarter,the second quarter,the fourth quarter and the third quarter respectively,and the corresponding standard deviation and coefficient of variation are larger at higher price levels.Monthly price characteristics:it presents the characteristics of oscillatory rise and intensive fluctuation,mainly medium and small fluctuations;Quarterly and monthly prices are significantly affected by seasonal factors and irregular factors,and have a certain periodicity and trend.(2)Influencing factors of price fluctuation: supply factors include seasonal factors,production cost,producers’ willingness,potato quality and import scale;Demand factors include food demand,feeding demand,processing industry demand,export demand;Other factors: industrial policy,information asymmetry,external shocks,natural environment.(3)The ARIMA(2,0,3)model is established to predict that the price from March 2022 to January 2024 will first decline slowly and then rise slightly.Based on the above research,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on scientific planting,establishment of emergency reserve and control mechanism,improvement of potato subsidy incentive policy,improvement of industry anti-risk ability,construction of new industry model and establishment of price monitoring platform.