Research On The Fluctuation Of Hog Price In Hebei Province And Its Influencing Factors

Pork is the most important meat consumer in the daily consumption of Chinese residents,and it is an important part of the “vegetable basket”.Live pigs are the upstream products of pork and its related food.The price of live pigs has an important influence on the price of pork and its manufactures as well as the overall price level.Reasonable market price of live pigs is an important guarantee to promote the development of live pigs industry,guarantee market supply,meet residents’ daily meat consumption and increase farmers’ income.It is also of great significance to stabilize the overall price level and promote the stable development of economy and society.However,under the market mechanism,the price of live pigs in market is constantly fluctuating.This phenomenon has led to the instability in the production and income of pig industry.Hebei Province is a Chinese traditional pig production area and a key development area in the future.It faces not only the problems caused by frequent fluctuations of live pigs price but also the problem of completing the regulation mechanism of hog prices.In this context,this article takes the hog price of Hebei Province as the research object,systematically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics,fluctuation cycle,influencing factors and transmission mechanism of hog prices in Hebei Province.On this basis,it draws conclusions and proposes countermeasures to regulate the price fluctuation of live pigs.and focuses on the systematic analysis of the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of hog price.On this basis,we draw conclusions and propose countermeasures to regulate the price fluctuation of live pigs.This paper mainly studies from the following aspects: Firstly,the background,the purpose,the significance,the innovations and inadequacies of this thesis are described in detail,and the research status of the live pigs’ price is systematically discussed;The second part is mainly to explain the relevant definition of hog price and the related price fluctuation theory,providing theoretical basis for this study;The third part mainly analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the annual and intra-annual price of pigs in Hebei Province,and uses the seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering model to explore the fluctuation law of live pig prices,laying the foundation for the analysis of the price fluctuations causes;The fourth part analyzes the affecting factors of the price fluctuation from the aspects of supply and demand,including not only theoretical analysis,but also factor analysis method,to sort the influencing factors and find the key factors;The fifth part analyzes the price transmission mechanism of pigs in Hebei Province,including the horizontal price transmission and the vertical pricetransmission.The horizontal price transmission is between regions,mainly based on the Hebei pigs price-Beijing pigs price and the vertical price transmission is in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain,mainly based on fattening pig feed price-pig price-pork price,thus discovering the correlation and fluctuation effects of hog prices;Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the regulation of pig prices are proposed based on the above analysis and the current status of regulation and control in Hebei Province.The possible innovations of this paper are: Obtain the annual fluctuation range and monthly fluctuation range of hog price quantitatively for the first time,which provides a reference for further study of reasonable range of pig price fluctuation;In the previous research on the transmission mechanism of hog price,focusing on the conduction analysis from the longitudinal angle,this paper not only carried out longitudinal conduction analysis,but also increased the cross-sectional hog price transmission analysis,and systematically analyze the transmission status of hog prices in Hebei Province.This can help us to explore the causes of hog price fluctuations more comprehensively;In the previous studies of the factors affecting the hog price fluctuation,the factor analysis method was rarely used for quantitative analysis.This paper uses this method to analyze the influence degree of various influencing factors,so that it is easy for us to find the relatively important hog price fluctuation factors.The research in this paper is helpful to enrich the research results in this field of Hebei Province and to provide decision-making reference for the introduction of targeted hog regulation measure in Hebei Province.At the same time,because Hebei is an important Province for pig production in our country,this article also can contributes to the study of the fluctuation law of hog prices under the national circulation and the further optimization of national regulation measures.