Reserarch On Investmentdecision Of Utility Tunnel PPP Project Of Key Resk Factors

As an optimized investment and financing mode,PPP has been widely used in comprehensive pipe gallery projects in recent years.However,the characteristics of numerous PPP project participants and incomplete contracts make social capital face many risks in the actual investment projects,and it is difficult to realize the expected investment returns.Therefore,for social capital,under the action of key risk factors,how to make correct investment decisions for comprehensive pipeline corridor PPP projects is worth in-depth study.First,this paper expounds the related concepts of PPP model and comprehensive pipe gallery,and discusses the related theories of PPP project risk and investment decision.Secondly,this paper through qualitative and quantitative research method to determine the key risk factors of comprehensive pipe gallery PPP project investment,first consult the literature and case study to identify and preliminary summary of 45 risk factor indicators,and using the questionnaire method of preliminary screening to establish 31 risk factor indicators,and then use the improvement of entropy right & DEMATEL method to determine the key investment risk factors of comprehensive pipe gallery PPP project.Finally,according to the nature of key risk factors,three quantitative key risk factors,borrowing interest rate,operating income and operating cost,are selected to establish the relationship with investment indicators,and Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced to build an investment decision model under key risk factors.Finally,take J city comprehensive utility tunnel PPP project as an example,based on the key risk factors of social capital,investment decision model,using Monte Carlo simulation project cash flow under the three key risk factors and calculate the feasibility of the project of key risk factors,simulate the change of key risk factors,determine the investment boundary conditions under different risk factors,so that the social capital party to their own conditions to make investment decisions,effectively provide reference for whether the social capital to participate in the comprehensive pipe gallery PPP project investment.