A Method For Determining The Level Of Mass Emergencies Considering Experts’ Risk Attitude And Adjustment Behavior Under Double Reliability

Mass emergencies pose a serious threat to social stability and development,and the determination of the level of mass emergencies is the decision-making basis for starting the emergency plan for scientific response.Due to the differences in personal experience background,decision-making level and psychological cognition of experts participating in emergency decision-making,it is necessary to integrate the level judgment of different experts in many fields for comprehensive research and judgment to scientifically and accurately judge the level of mass emergencies in complex and uncertain environment.In view of the strong subjective uncertainty of experts’ research and judgment information,which leads to the difficulty of determining the level of mass emergencies,and the low reliability of mass emergencies due to the low discrimination of decision fusion results,this paper proposes an mass emergency level determination method considering experts’ risk attitude and research and judgment adjustment behavior under double reliability.The main work is as follows:(1)Considering the risk attitude of experts facing uncertain decision-making,a method for determining the level of mass emergencies under the double reliability of "expert weight and self reliability" is proposed.Firstly,according to the double reliability,a complete evidence generation method considering the risk attitude of experts and the semantic correlation of level is constructed;Then,considering the subjective and objective information of evidence,an improved evidence fusion method is proposed to fully and effectively retain the original tendency information of experts in the fusion results;Furthermore,a discrimination test method of fusion results is given to avoid the situation of low discrimination between grades.Finally,the feasibility and scientificity of the method are verified by numerical examples and simulation experiments.The experimental results show that experts’ self reliability and risk perception attitude will affect the event level research and judgment results.The mass emergency level determination method considering these two factors can improve the reliability and credibility of decision-making.(2)In the case of low discrimination of decision fusion results,a method for determining the level of mass emergencies considering the adjustment behavior of expert research and judgment is proposed.Firstly,according to the distance between evidences,a calculation method of reliable cooperation tendency coefficient based on expert judgment and adjustment behavior is proposed;Secondly,the consistency coefficient of research and judgment is calculated according to the change of evidence support between the two stages of expert research and judgment;Further,according to the coefficient of reliable cooperation tendency and the coefficient of research and judgment consistency,the reliability of evidence is adjusted and the average fusion of evidence is carried out,so that experts can reach a consensus to obtain the level of mass emergencies that meet the differentiation of fusion results;Finally,an example is given to verify that the reliable cooperation tendency coefficient and research and judgment consistency coefficient proposed in this paper not only consider the cooperation willingness and reliability of individual experts,but also consider the change trend of group consensus in different research and judgment stages,which can obtain higher differentiation fusion results and improve the accuracy of decision-making results.The level determination method of mass emergencies proposed in this paper enriches the research of emergency decision-making theory and methods,and provides effective decision-making method support for solving the actual mass emergencies and taking timely and effective response measures,and has reference significance for the determination of the level of other social security events.