Research On The Policy Effect Of Free Trade Zone On Industrial Structure Upgrade And Export Quality Upgrade

Promoting coordinated regional development is one of the core contents of my country’s current "building a new development pattern and achieving high-quality development".While promoting the high-level opening up of various provinces,the pilot free trade zone has also effectively affected the industries in the provinces where they are located and surrounding provinces.Based on the classic asymptotic double difference model,this paper further considers the objective spatial dependencies between the central province where the free trade zone is located and the surrounding provinces,and constructs a spatial asymptotic double difference Model(Spatial stagger difference-in-differences,SDID,including spatial independent variable lag regression model,spatial autoregressive model,and spatial Dubin model),quantitatively analyzes the “local demonstration” of the free trade zone for the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the province and surrounding provinces.Pull Effect" and "Peripheral Radiation Spillover Effect".Among them,starting from the two dimensions of industrial structure advancement and industrial structure rationalization,three indicators of industrial structure advancement quantity,industrial structure advancement quality,and industrial structure rationalization are constructed as outcome variables.The results show that:(1)On the whole,the FTZ has significantly and positively promoted the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the pilot area(the results of the progressive double-difference model and the three spatial double-difference models are consistent).This result passed the parallel trend test,the placebo test,and the robustness test based on three different spatial weight matrices(the adjacency matrix,the inverse distance matrix,and the economic distance matrix,respectively),indicating the reliability of the results.(2)A detailed analysis is made from a spatial perspective.On the one hand,from the perspective of “local effect”,the FTZ has the greatest qualitative promotion effect on the heightening of the industrial structure.On the other hand,from the perspective of “spillover effect”,the free trade zone has significantly and positively promoted the development of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas(in which the qualitative promotion of the industrial structure is stronger than the industrial structure.However,it shows a significant "siphon effect" on the rationalization of the industrial structure.(3)From the spatial autocorrelation test and the regression results of the three spatial double-difference models,it can be seen that on the whole,there is a significant positive space for the heightening of the industrial structure(including the quantity of the heightened industrial structure and the quality of the heightened industrial structure).(4)From the analysis of the batch,stage and location heterogeneity of the establishment of free trade zones,it is found that only the third batch of free trade zones significantly promoted the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the pilot areas.In terms of specific refinement,the batch heterogeneity is first analyzed.The first batch of free trade zones significantly promoted the quantitative and rational development of the industrial structure in the region,but inhibited the qualitative development of the industrial structure in the region.At the same time,it has brought a positive "spillover effect" to the high quality of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas;the second batch of free trade zones has brought a positive effect to the high volume and rationalization of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas."Spillover effect";the third batch of free trade zones has significantly promoted the quantitative,qualitative,and rational development of the industrial structure in the region,and at the same time,it has brought positive effects to the quantitative and quantitative industrial structure of the surrounding areas.To the "spillover effect",while the rationalization of the industrial structure shows a "siphon effect".Then analyze the heterogeneity of the stages.In the first stage,the free trade zone promoted the quantitative and rationalization of the industrial structure in the region,restrained the quality of the industrial structure.There is a positive "spillover effect";in the second stage,the free trade zone has brought a positive "spillover effect" to the high quality of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas;in the third stage,the free trade zone has promoted the high level of the industrial structure in the region At the same time,it has brought a positive "spillover effect" to the quantity and quality of the advanced industrial structure in the surrounding areas,and brought about the rationalization of the industrial structure.Significant "siphon effect".Finally,analyzing the location heterogeneity,the coastal free trade zone has significantly promoted the rational development of the industrial structure in the region,and at the same time,it has brought a positive "spillover effect" to the high level of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas and the quality of the high level of the industrial structure;The inland free trade zone has significantly promoted the quantitative,qualitative,and rational development of the industrial structure in the region.Further,this paper conducts an extended analysis of the effects of free trade zones and industrial structure transformation and upgrading on the quality of export products.The following conclusions are drawn: First,the free trade zone can significantly and positively promote the improvement of the quality of export products;then,the effect of the quantity of industrial structure heightened on the quality of export products is negatively inhibited,while the quality and The effect of the rationalization of industrial structure on the quality of export products shows a positive promotion;finally,through the mediation effect analysis step,after considering the impact of the free trade zone and the indicators of industrial structure transformation and upgrading on the quality of export products,it is found that the industrial structure is highly advanced.When quantity is used as the mediating variable,the mediating effect of the free trade zone affecting the quality of export products by affecting the quantity of industrial structure heightening is negative inhibition,while the mediating effect of the quality of industrial structure heightening and the rationalization of industrial structure as mediating variables is: Positive promotion,and they all show partial intermediary effects,the free trade zone still has a direct positive impact on the quality of export products.Therefore,it is necessary to further increase the innovation of policies and systems in the free trade zone,strengthen the replication and promotion of policies,optimize the spatial layout,and promote the joint development of the free trade zone,so as to better play the role of "function demonstration" and "radiation driving" of the free trade zone.