| By September 2020,China’s free trade zone has been extended to 21 provinces.The impact of free trade zone on regional economy(that is,the regional economic effect of free trade zone)has become the focus of academic attention at home and abroad.At the same time,the regional economic effect of free trade zone is also affected by new economic geography,domestic vertical professional division of labor and other factors.Therefore,researching the regional economic effect of China’s free trade zone,and analyzing the influence of new economic geography,domestic vertical professional division of labor and other factors on the regional economic effect of the free trade zone,it is of great practical significance to perfect the industrial and spatial layout of the free trade zone and promote the construction of the free trade zone.However,the existing literature focuses on the economic effects of the construction of the free trade zone on the provinces itself,and rarely pays attention to the impact of the free trade zone on the economies of other regions,and is mostly limited to theoretical analysis.The empirical research and statistical analysis directly related to it have not been expanded.In view of this,based on the unbalanced development theory and representative literature,this thesis first discusses the regional economic effect,heterogeneity and the influencing factors of regional economic effect in the free trade zone,and puts forward the corresponding research hypothesis.On this basis,the measurement model is established to analyze the regional economic effects of the free trade zones at the provincial and prefectural levels,and the spatial difference in difference model is used to analyze the regional economic effects of each free trade zone.At the theoretical level,we first analyze the influence mechanism of free trade zone on economic growth and economic cycle synchronization,as follows:(1)Free trade zone can influence economic growth and economic cycle synchronization through import and export trade,FDI and industrial agglomeration.(2)There may be regional heterogeneity in the range of regional impacts and radiation capacity resulting from free trade zones.Because the economic development level of the provinces in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions,the influence of the free trade zone in the eastern region on other regions may be greater.(3)There may also be differences in the regional economic effects of the free trade zones,i.e.the economic effects between provinces(cities)that are the same as the free trade zones may be stronger.(4)The regional impact of the construction of the free trade zone may also have spatial attenuation characteristics.According to the theory of agglomeration externality,the regional impact of the free trade zone will theoretically be wavy,and with the increase of distance,its effect may gradually disappear.At the empirical level,first of all,calculate the level of economic cycle synchronism at the provincial and prefectural levels,introducing value chain trade and applying it to the assessment of policy effects in free trade zones,on that basis,build the measurement model of this research.Based on three sets of panel data from30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2018,89 cities with larger economic scale from2001 to 2017 and 285 cities in China from 2002 to 2018,to investigate the regional economic effect of free trade zone.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The results at the provincial level show that :(1)The construction of the free trade zone has significantly reduced the economic cycle synchronization with the dependent provinces;(2)The space layout test found,the economic effect of the construction of free trade zone is between 1000 and 2000 kilometers;(3)Regional and division of labour characteristics,the negative effect of the construction of free trade zone between the same plate(echelon)is greater than that between different plates(echelons);(4)Further analysis revealed that,there is a transfer effect between the provinces of the free trade zone and(non)the provinces of the free trade zone,the crowding out effect between the provinces of the same free trade zone is more prominent;(5)The extension analysis found that,having considered bilateral economic and trade cooperation,construction of free trade zones has significantly reduced real GDP growth in other provinces,the negative extrusion effect of inland free trade zone such as middle and west is more prominent.(2)The results at the prefectural level show that :(1)The construction of the free trade zone has significantly reduced the economic cycle synchronism between the located cities and other cities;(2)The heterogeneity test found that the negative effect of the construction of the free trade zone between the same plate and the economic cycle synchronization is less than that of the different plates;(3)While the negative effect of the economic cycle synchronization between the same provinces is higher than that of the different provinces;(4)It is found that the construction of free trade zone is negatively correlated with economic cycle synchronism after introducing variable spatial factors,and the negative effect is mainly from the third batch of free trade zone.(3)The analysis of the influencing factors of the regional economic effect of the free trade zone shows that :(1)The regional influence range of the free trade zone is wavy,and the regional influence effect will disappear with the increase of distance;(2)The economic effect of the construction of the free trade zone is also affected by the layout of the national high-tech zones;(3)The economic effect of the free trade zone in the eastern region is lagging behind,while other regions have no significant impact;(4)The park size of the free trade zone in the eastern region has an incentive effect on economic growth,while other regions have no obvious impact;(5)The test of other factors found that location factors and policy orientation are important factors affecting the economic effect of free trade zone.The conclusion of this research is helpful to promote the construction of free trade zone,and has certain policy enlightenment to perfect the industrial and spatial layout of free trade zone.Of course,there are also shortcomings in this research,the research of this thesis is still based on macro-level analysis,it is necessary to go deep into the research of free trade zone within the park industry,enterprises and other micro-level analysis in order to draw more accurate conclusions,so as to provide policy basis for relevant decision-making departments.If I can get the micro data of the free trade zone in the future,I will study the regional economic effect of the free trade zone more carefully. |
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