Spatial-Temporal Evolutionary Characteristics And Its Influential Factors Of The Industrial Structure Upgrading At County Level In Fujian Province

The regional coordinated development has become the focus of governments at all levels in Fujian Province.Accordingly,research on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure will become a hot topic.By using the Markov chain method,spatial Markov chain method,spatial correlation test,and spatial econometric regression method,the present study is designed to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution features and its influential factors of industrial upgrading coefficient in 67 counties in Fujian Province.It is founded that:(1)There is a negative spatial spillover effect of county industrial upgrading coefficients in Fujian Province.That is to say,the improvement of the industrial upgrading coefficient in the region has a negative effect on that in the neighboring areas.Due to this negative effect,areas with high industrial upgrading coefficients are adjacent to areas with low levels,and high-level areas are separated from each other.(2)Based on the analysis of Markov chain and space Markov chain,we have predicted the long-term trend of Fujian's industrial structure.We hold that there is an unclear outlook for the long-term development trend of the industrial upgrading coefficient in Fujian Province.The industrial upgrading coefficient is low and medium-low.The number of counties with the low and medium-low level of upgrading efficiency is slightly more than the number of counties at the medium-high and high level.(3)We have constructed Spatial Panel Dubin Models under Three Different Weighted Matrices and analyzed the influential factors of the industrial structure at the county level Fujian Province through five types of variables.The findings are as follows: 1)Social needs: Consumption demand,export demand,and investment demand have not played a role in promoting the proportion of the tertiary industry.2)Factor endowments: The labor capital and the number of the labor force have a direct positive effect on the proportion of the tertiary sector in Fujian Province as well as positive spillover effects on the neighboring regions.The increased labor force in the coastal areas are more inclined to employment in the tertiary industry,while the employment bias in the inland areas is not apparent.3)Scientific and technological innovations: Under the province's sample,the educational expenditure has exerted no direct or indirect influence on the development of the tertiary industry.And the effects are just the opposite between coastal and inland areas.4)Policy environment: Government expenditure has a positive but limited role in the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry.The existing tax policy is irrational and not conducive to the further increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry.5)Other factors: Urbanization in inland areas is of positive significance to upgrading the industrial structure.The improvement of transportation infrastructure will enhance the “siphonic effect” of developed regions on elements of backward areas as well as hinder the upgrading of the industrial structure of the surrounding regions.The financial development benefits the increase in the proportion of the tertiary industry.