Study On The Import Potential Of Dairy Products In China

With the development of China’s economy and the improvement of people’s consumption level,per capita consumption of dairy products has increased,and China’s import demand for dairy products and dependence on the international dairy market have also increased year by year.The balance between supply and demand of domestic dairy products is relatively fragile,and the risk of dairy imports in China is constantly intensifying.In order to better meet the import demand of China’s dairy products to ensure the consumption demand of domestic dairy products,on the basis of analyzing China’s current dairy import situation and trade relations with major source countries,we will explore the import potential of bilateral dairy products and the space for import expansion,and then propose measures to disperse import risks.Based on the above research background,the article takes the import of Dairy Products in China as the research object,and according to the classic trade theories such as the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of factor endowments,first expounds the development status of China’s dairy imports from the aspects of import scale,import structure and import pattern of China’s dairy products,and then analyzes the trade competitiveness,trade complementarity and trade intensity of China and major dairy source countries,and finally uses 2001-2020 between China and New Zealand.Empirical analysis was conducted on the relevant data of dairy products in Australia and the United States and 12 other countries,and the import potential and import efficiency of China’s dairy products were analyzed through the time-varying stochastic frontier gravitational model,and the influencing factors of Bilateral Trade between China and many countries were explored,and relevant policy recommendations were put forward according to the research results.The research results show that China’s dairy products import scale is getting larger and larger,dairy products import sources are more concentrated,France,the United States,New Zealand,Australia and Germany and other countries are the most important sources of dairy products,China’s dairy import market belongs to the "high oligopoly" market.Judging from the competitiveness and complementarity of dairy trade between China and the main import source countries,the international competitiveness of China’s dairy products is extremely low,and the competitiveness of dairy trade in the source countries is strong,China’s dairy trade with these countries has a certain complementarity;China’s import dependence on Dairy products with Australia,France,New Zealand,the United States and Finland is relatively high but shows a downward trend,and the import dependence with other countries is not high but shows an upward trend.From the results of the trade gravity model,it can be seen that the growth of China’s GDP,the growth of the population of China and exporting countries will promote the growth of China’s dairy product imports,and the distance factor is the obstacle to dairy imports;the improvement of logistics and infrastructure,the improvement of economic freedom,and the signing of free trade agreements are conducive to the improvement of import efficiency.In 2020,the average efficiency of Dairy Imports between China and 12 countries is 0.66 and there is little difference between the import efficiency between countries,indicating that there is a certain potential for China’s dairy imports to be tapped,but the space for import expansion is still limited.Finally,it proposes to strengthen logistics and infrastructure construction,improve the trade environment,enhance regional integration and coordinate development and develop diversified markets,combine "bring in" and "go out" and improve the competitiveness of domestic dairy products.