The Study On Economic Effects Of China’s Participation In RCEP

Due to the comprehensive suspension of the WTO Doha round of trade negotiations,the progress of the multilateral trading system around the world has been greatly hindered.In order to circumvent the difficulty of reaching multilateral agreements,many countries have started bilaterally and regionally.FTA has arisen on a global scale.As far as the Asia-Pacific region is concerned,FTA has developed particularly rapidly,and has formed a network of intertwined and complex free trade agreements.In order to further enhance the use efficiency of the integration of various agreements and achieve common prosperity in the region,ASEAN first proposed the RCEP initiative in 2011,and officially kicked off the negotiation in Brunei in 2013.After eight years of difficult negotiations,finally 15 other member states except India formally signed RCEP on November 15,2020.In the context of the still severe COVID-19 epidemic,global economic recession,unilateral protectionism and trade frictions,the construction of RCEP will bring strong impetus into the recovery of the Asia-Pacific region and even the world economy.For China,the construction of RCEP will comprehensively accelerate the economic and trade ties between China and other member states,become a new opportunity for China to deepen reform and opening up,and provide a new economic growth point for the subsequent development of China.Therefore,analyzing the economic effects of China’s entry into RCEP has extremely important practical significance for how China will participate in the construction of regional economic integration in the future and achieve high-quality and sustainable economic development.This paper firstly analyzes the influence mechanism of the economic effects of China’s entry into RCEP by combining the relevant theories of regional economic integration with the current situation of trade cooperation between China and RCEP member countries,and then uses the tenth edition of the GTAP model to simulate the economic effects of China’s entry into RCEP,and when setting the simulation plan,the differences in the reduction and exemption policies brought about by the different sensitivities of different countries to different products and the situation of India’s participation in the RCEP were considered.The simulation prediction results show that:(1)The effect of trade creation is significant.Through the simulation analysis of the GTAP model,it can be found that the economic effects of China’s GDP,social welfare,terms of trade,and import and export are basically positive after China’s entry into RCEP.And with the deepening of the openness of each member state,the positive impact also expands.From the industrial level,under the current industrial structure and technical level,as the overall trade openness of RCEP reaches a higher level,China will fall into a short-term dilemma of high-end blockade and low-end transfer.Most sectors such as machinery equipment,precision instruments,textiles and garments,leather products,and animal husbandry will all be squeezed by competition from other economies in the RCEP region,and industrial output will further deteriorate.(2)For economies outside the region,the establishment of the RCEP free trade zone will have a certain negative impact on their economies,especially the United States and India.Combined with the hostile and antagonistic attitude of the United States towards China in recent years,China should focus on preventing the United States from undermining the RCEP through geopolitics.For India,it should actively develop its own weak economy,enhance its industrial competitiveness,and rejoin RCEP at the right time to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.Finally,on the basis of the above,this paper proposes appropriate policy countermeasures.China should actively maintain cooperative relations with all member states,guard against possible interference from the United States,and push India to join the RCEP on the basis of the healthy development of the RCEP;Second,China should assist ASEAN to carry out coordination consultations and other activities,consolidate its dominant position in RCEP,and lead by example to achieve the reduction of non-tariff barriers promised in the agreement;finally,China is necessary to further enhance the market competitiveness of products,promote industrial cooperation and structural upgrading.