Study On The Impact Of Total Cost Insurance On Farmers’ Corn Planting Area: A Quasi Natural Experiment Based On The Pilot In Liaoning Province

As an important policy tool of agricultural support and protection system,agricultural insurance is of great significance to disperse agricultural risks and ensure national food security.Since the central government implemented the agricultural insurance subsidy policy in 2007,China’s policy oriented agricultural insurance has achieved catch-up development.By 2020,China has built the world’s largest agricultural insurance market.China’s policy based agricultural insurance has always had the problems of single insurance type and low guarantee level,which can not effectively match the effective needs of differentiated farmers.In 2018,the Ministry of Finance and relevant departments jointly issued the notice on carrying out the pilot work of Total Cost Insurance and Income Insurance for three major grain crops,and piloted the implementation of Total Cost Insurance and Income Insurance for three major staple grains in six provinces,including Liaoning Province.As a transitional product from traditional output insurance to Income Insurance,at present,the price formation mechanism of agricultural products in China is not perfect.At this time,analyzing the possible impact of Total Cost Insurance on farmers’ planting area and other production decisions has important theoretical and practical significance for further promoting agricultural insurance reform and ensuring national food security.Based on the micro survey data of 351 households in pilot counties in Liaoning Province in 2018 and 2020,this study empirically tests the impact mechanism,effect and impact path of Total Cost Insurance on farmers’ corn planting area.The specific research contents include:firstly,based on farmers’ behavior theory and expected utility theory,this paper analyzes the impact and mechanism of Total Cost Insurance with increased insurance amount on farmers’ corn planting area;Secondly,based on the micro survey data of the pilot area of Total Cost Insurance in Liaoning Province,the PSM-DID method is used to empirically test the impact effect and impact path of Total Cost Insurance on farmers’ corn planting area;Finally,taking agricultural income accounting for 50% of total household income as the dividing line,the sample farmers are divided into professional households and part-time households,and the effects of complete cost insurance on the heterogeneity of corn planting area of farmers of different production types are investigated in groups.The results show that:(1)Total Cost Insurance significantly increases farmers’ corn planting area.After participating in the Total Cost Insurance,the average corn planting area of farmers increased by 2.946 mu,which passed the significance test of 1%;(2)The Total Cost Insurance has brought into play the effect of scale growth and structural adjustment by promoting farmers to flow into more land and crop substitution and expanding corn production at the same time,and the effect of the former is greater than that of the latter;(3)Total Cost Insurance has significantly promoted the increase of corn planting area of specialized households and part-time households,and the impact on specialized households is greater than that of part-time households;(4)The influence path of complete cost insurance on corn planting area of farmers with different production types is different.By promoting the inflow of land,Total Cost Insurance has increased the corn planting area of specialized households and played a scale growth effect on specialized households;By promoting land inflow and crop substitution,the corn planting area of part-time households is increased,which has played a scale growth effect and structural adjustment effect on part-time households,and the effect of the latter is greater than that of the former.Based on the above conclusions,the research puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: build an agricultural insurance policy system with multiple guarantee levels facing the heterogeneous needs of farmers;Improve the corresponding supporting financial subsidy policies;Optimize land circulation policies and formulate corresponding policies to ensure the income of land renting farmers;Strengthen the publicity of agricultural insurance policy reform and strengthen farmers’ understanding of agricultural insurance pilot reform.