Study On The Driving Factors Of Farmers' Corn Planting Area Adjustment Decision

The continuous optimization of agricultural planting structure promotes the development of agricultural modernization,adapts to the continuous upgrading of national demand for agricultural products,ensures the national food and food security,promotes the growth of farmers' income,and also helps the double circulation of China's agricultural products in the international and domestic markets.However,at present,the supply structure of agricultural products is still unbalanced,some varieties are surplus and difficult to sell,and some varieties are heavily dependent on imports.As one of the three major grain in China,the rapid growth of its sown area provides an important guarantee for the national food security,especially during the implementation of the temporary corn collection and storage policy.The rapid growth of corn planting area has also brought a series of development problems,such as serious inventory backlog,insufficient supply of high-quality corn and inverted price of corn at home and abroad.In 2016,the state adjusted the temporary corn collection and storage policy into the form of "market-oriented purchase" and "subsidy",which promoted the role of corn market price formation mechanism.Farmers are the main body of agricultural production and management.Farmers' planting area adjustment decision is the micro basis of inducing maize planting structure adjustment.what factors will affect the decision of farmers' maize planting area?In addition to the influence of macro policy,will it also be affected by natural factors,the interaction among farmers or the endowment of family resources?Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to deeply understand the agricultural production and management behavior of farmers and fully explore the factors that affect farmers' maize planting area decision-making for the optimization of maize planting area,the reduction of production cost and the improvement of maize quality.Based on the perspective of supply,this paper analyzes the driving factors of farmers'maize planting area decision-making from the dual dimensions of external factors and internal factors,so as to provide experience reference for optimizing agricultural planting structure adjustment.In the part of theoretical analysis,referring to the frame structure of participants'intelligence decision-making model,this paper first reveals the influence of climate change and subsidy policy on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making and its mechanism through influencing maize yield and price from the dimension of external factors.Then,from the perspective of internal factors,this paper analyzes the impact of land circulation and social network on Farmers' decision-making of maize planting area through scale economy effect and risk sharing effect.Content of empirical analysis.Firstly,based on 3402 municipal data(162 cities from 1998 to 2018),this paper analyzes the impact of climate change on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making and the moderating role of farmers' adaptive behavior in it by using dynamic difference generalized moment model(DIF-GMM),and uses panel autoregressive model(PVAR)to analyze the impact of climate change on maize planting area decision-making in the future forecast.Secondly,based on 3402 municipal data,this paper analyzes the impact of subsidy policy on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making by using the dual difference model(DID)and propensity score matching dual difference model(PSM-DID),and makes a comparative analysis of the impact of different policies.Thirdly,based on 1175 survey data of farmers in Liaoning Province in 2015 and 2018,the impact of land transfer on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making was analyzed by using logit model and two-stage least square method(2SLS).Finally,based on the survey data of 467 maize growers in Liaoning Province,using Probit model,bootstrap model and IVProbit method,this paper analyzes the impact of social network on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making.The results show that the external factors have a long-term dynamic impact on the decision-making of maize planting area.Specifically,climate change has a significant impact on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making.Further analysis of the mechanism shows that climate change affects the decision-making of maize planting area mainly by affecting the yield per unit area,and farmers' adaptive behavior plays a moderating role in the impact of climate change on maize planting area decision-making.In addition,the subsidy policy effectively promoted the decision-making of maize planting area for farmers in the policy implementation area.Compared with the policy of "market-oriented purchase" and "subsidy",the effect of temporary collection and storage policy on Farmers' maize planting area decision-making is stronger.According to the influence of internal factors on the decision-making of maize planting area,the land transfer promoted farmers to increase the proportion of maize planting area,which was mainly due to the increase of income brought by scale operation.From the heterogeneity analysis of farmers and villages,land transfer will significantly promote the pure agricultural households to increase the proportion of maize sown area.Compared with the villages with characteristic agricultural industries,the proportion of maize sown area in villages without characteristic industries is more likely to increase.In addition,farmers tend to imitate the behavior of other farmers in the social network in the decision-making process of maize planting area,and the degree of imitation of other farmers in the kinship network is stronger than that of geographical network.Further analysis of the mechanism shows that the influence of other farmers' decision-making in social network on maize planting area decision-making of sample farmers mainly stems from the promotion of learning imitation and risk sharing mechanism.Based on the above research results,the following policy recommendations are put forward.First of all,the government should strengthen the early warning mechanism of climate change,formulate differentiated climate adaptation strategies according to local conditions,and give full play to the service function and demonstration role of new business entities in coping with climate change adaptation.Secondly,the subsidy policy should be changed from a single price incentive measure to a diversified support mode,and be inclined to high-quality maize production areas and scale operators.Thirdly,we should encourage farmers to appropriately expand the scale of operation,promote the scale of agricultural production,and ensure the income of agricultural production and operation and national food security.Finally,we should improve the market information dissemination mechanism,broaden the channels for farmers to obtain information,and make full use of the social network to promote regional specialized production.