| The input and output of material,information and energy are constantly exchanged among Water System,Economy System and Ecology System.As the imbalance of regional development and the disorder of spatial development become increasingly prominent,the contradiction between supply and demand of water,economy and ecology becomes more serious,which restricts the high-quality economic and social development of the region.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which as the center of the regional harmonious development in our country,the mismatch between water,economy and ecology is a major problem faced by regional sustainable development.It is of great significance to reveal the characteristic of the current regional Water-Economy-Ecology coupling coordinated development and simulate the change trend of coupling coordination in the future,so as to promote the high-quality economic and social development.Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object,based on the reasonable structure of the mutual relationship between water,economy and ecology,the index system of Water-Economy-Ecology coupling coordinated evaluation is constructed,and analyze the characteristics of Water-Economy-Ecology coupling coordinated development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The System Dynamics model is built to simulate the trend of various indicators and coupling coordination degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under various scenarios in the future,and the optimal scheme and relevant measures are proposed for regional coordinated development.The main research results are as follows:(1)Based on the actual situation of water,economy and ecology in BeijingTianjin-Hebei region and the reciprocal feed-forward relationship of Water-EconomyEcology,the Grey Relational Analysis(GRA)and factor analysis method are used to select indicators in accordance with the principle of scientific,systematic and operable.Finally,an index system covering 24 indicators of Water,Economy and Ecology System is constructed.Such as total water resources,per capita water resources,groundwater storage variable,per capita GDP,per capita industrial output value,number of inbound tourists,urban green coverage rate,ecological water consumption ratio,the proportion of river water quality reaching or better than class III,et al.(2)Entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of the index system.The coupling coordination degree model was used to evaluate the coupling coordinated development status of Water-Economy-Ecology in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The main influencing factors are identified by GRA.The results show that the Water-Economy-Ecology coupling coordination level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been on the rise from 2006 to 2019.From the perspective of multi-system comparison,the Water system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other regions relative lag behind,and the interaction between Water and Ecology system in Tianjin lags behind,Hebei is in the backward state of the Economy system.From the evolutive characteristics of regional distribution,Beijing is at the best level of coupling coordination,followed by Tianjin,Hebei is developing slowly due to the continuous backwardness of Economy.The total amount of water resources and the storage variables of groundwater are the most important factors affecting the coupling coordination degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,followed by the change of population.(3)Based on the establishment of dynamic model of Water-Economy-Ecosystem in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,five scenarios were set to simulate the coupling and coordinated development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2020 to 2035,which are status quo,open source and reduce expenditure,develop economy,protect environment,and comprehensive coordination.The results show that the coupling coordination degree of Water-Economy-Ecology in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei presents an increasing trend under the five scenarios.The status quo has the lowest coupling coordination degree,while the comprehensive coordination has the highest coupling coordination degree.The coupling coordination degree can be improved obviously when multiple measures are taken simultaneously to increase source and reduce expenditure,economic development and environmental protection.Based on the results of coupling coordination simulation,the countermeasures and suggestions for water,economy and ecology are put forward from the perspective of regional coordinated development. |
