Research On Credit Risk Of Real Estate Industry

Since 2018,China began to regulate and control the real estate industry frequently and issued a series of tightening policies,which has gradually exposed the credit risk of the real estate industry.At the same time,the credit risk of the industry is cleared and the industry integration is further accelerated.Therefore,it is of great significance to measure and analyze the regulation effect behind a series of policies,the credit status of the real estate industry after regulation and control,whether the credit situation is in line with the expectations of policy regulation and control,and the new phenomena and challenges faced by the real estate industry under policy regulation and control.This thesis combs the operation of the real estate industry from 2018 to 2021 in order to review the performance of the real estate industry under policy regulation.In view of the need to use the modified KMV model to measure the credit risk of listed companies in China,this thesis takes 80 listed companies in the real estate industry from 2018 to 2021 as samples to test the applicability of the modified KMV model.After getting the conclusion that the modified KMV model is suitable for measuring the credit risk of listed enterprises in China,this thesis uses the calculated KMV data of the real estate industry to analyze the performance of enterprises with different operating conditions and credit conditions under the policy adjustment,and to give an early warning to the enterprises with poor credit conditions.at the same time,the article calculates the KMV data of more than 3000 listed companies in the whole market from 2018 to 2021.From the perspective of the whole market and the industrial chain,this thesis analyzes the clearing of the credit risk of the real estate industry and looks for the potential risks from the industrial chain.The results show that when the modified KMV model is used to measure the default distance of the two groups of samples with different credit conditions,there are significant differences in the default distance between the two groups of samples.Therefore,it can be considered that the modified KMV model is suitable for measuring the credit risk of listed companies in China.In the review of the operation of the real estate industry,it is found that from the operational point of view,the industry gradually began to pursue sound operation,industry integration has also been further accelerated,and the industry has made a positive response to policy regulation.After analyzing the credit status in the industry,it is concluded that enterprises with different operating conditions have different performances under the policy regulation,and the regulation of tight policy accelerates the differentiation of the credit status in the industry.Under pressure,some enterprises’ credit risks are exposed,and the credit risks of other enterprises begin to clear gradually.After measuring the credit situation of the real estate industry based on the whole market,we get: the credit situation of the real estate industry is normal in recent years,the credit level is rising,the high-risk situation of the industry has been reversed,and the credit risk of the industry is constantly cleared.On the whole,China’s regulation and control effect on the real estate industry is remarkable,the effect of clearing credit risk begins to appear,and the overall risk of the real estate industry is within a controllable range.