Research On Credit Risk Early Warning Of Listed Companies In Chinese Real Estate Industrys

The real estate industry is the national economy industry.The country’s real estate industry has developed quickly in the early 21 st century,gradually forming a "high leverage,high debt,high turnover" model,and the credit risk in the industry is constantly increasing.At the same time,since the new regulation of capital management in 2018,the central policy on the real estate market have accelerated the tightening,and property companies generally face financial stress.Real estate enterprises led by Evergrande are encountering liquidity crisis one after another,which has brought a non-negligible impact on the enterprises themselves,relevant creditors and the development of Chinese economy and society.Under this background,how promptly forewarns the credit risk of our country real estate enterprise appears very important.Based on the real estate industry as the research object,this paper explore the real estate industry present situation,the credit risk sources of credit risk analysis of real estate industry,building and training credit risk early warning model and to evaluate the effect of early warning,eventually for real estate enterprises and related regulators put forward the corresponding credit risk prevention advice.This paper focuses on the construction,training and effect evaluation of FA-GA-BP credit risk early warning model.Different from previous literatures,this paper uses the credit risk score F calculated by factor analysis as the expected output value,and 23 credit risk indicators selected as input values to construct the model.In this way,the output value of the model in practical application will also be the specific credit risk score.Real estate enterprises and relevant regulatory agencies cannot judge whether enterprises have credit risk based on the score.Therefore,this paper also divides the credit risk threshold interval according to the score,and determines that the credit risk score warning interval of real estate enterprises is F less than-0.39869.In practical application,it can refer to the threshold interval for direct warning of credit risk enterprises.Put the test set into the trained early warning model,the final mean square error of FA-GA-BP model is 2.78%,and the correct recognition rate of real estate enterprises in the "dangerous" category is 100%.It not only identifies the enterprises that have credit default in the current year,but also indicates the risks of enterprises that have not actually defaulted temporarily.The model has strong early warning performance.It can be widely used in credit risk warning of listed companies in real estate industry.Through the research on the real estate industry credit risk,this paper found that the real estate industry since 2020 credit risk problems have been increasing;Profitability index has the most significant impact on the credit risk of real estate enterprises;According to the empirical and theoretical results,the neural network model is an effective way to warn the real estate credit risk.This paper puts forward specific suggestions on preventing credit risks for enterprises,the government and relevant regulatory agencies.This paper provides a new idea for the credit risk warning method of real estate enterprises.In theory,it can enrich the research on credit risk quantification,credit risk early warning model design,etc.In practice,it can provide reference for real estate enterprises to adjust their strategies in a timely manner,the government and relevant regulatory departments to understand the industry trends,and promote the orderly development of the industry and the national economy.