Trade Efficiency And Potential Of American Agricultural Exports To China

China is one of the most important export markets for American soybean and other agricultural products.However,the Sino-US trade war that broke out in 2018 has not ended so far.Although the agricultural trade is the key area of the Sino-US trade war,the volume of Sino-US agricultural trade still shows a rising trend due to the high complementarity of Sino-US agricultural trade.Under the first phase of the China-US trade talks,China will increase imports of US agricultural products to ease the Sino-US trade imbalance.However,there is little in-depth research on the efficiency of U.S.agricultural exports to China.Based on the relevant data of Sino US agricultural trade,combined with relevant international trade theories,and based on a large number of documents,this paper first introduces the development process of Sino-US agricultural trade,and makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the structure,scale,competitiveness and complementarity of Sino-US agricultural trade.Then,based on the trade data between China and the United States and major trading partner countries from 2011 to 2020,this paper makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of Sino US agricultural trade by using the stochastic frontier gravity model.The empirical results show that:(1)The population size of China and the United States and the economic scale of the United States are positively correlated with the export of agricultural products and soybeans from the United States to China.(2)the growth of China’s economic scale is negatively correlated with the export scale of agricultural products from the United States to China,and positively correlated with the export of soybeans from the United States to China;The spatial distance between China and the United States has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural trade(3)In the two models,the degree of currency liberalization,the degree of trade liberalization,logistics performance index and political security have significantly weakened the blocking effect of trade non efficiency,and the government efficiency has not passed the significance test in the model.(4)Finally,calculate the import efficiency of Chinese agricultural products to the United States and other countries,and calculate the expansion space.The expansion space of American agricultural products exports to China is between231.12%-249.65%.The soybean with the largest trade volume has increased to about230 in the past two years.(5)The overall efficiency of agricultural trade between China and the United States is low and has great trade potential,especially the soybean trade,which shows a sharp downward trend after the Sino US trade war.The two sides should reach a stable trade cooperation relationship through active cooperation.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions from the perspective of external cooperation and internal adjustment.