| As a complex and open giant system,cities are inevitably subject to internal and external uncertainties and unknown risks during their construction and development,which pose serious threats to the smooth operation of the economy,social security and stability,and the physical and mental health of residents.In the past,the development model of the Yellow River Basin,which highly relied on the input of energy resources and labor force,brought a series of lowquality urbanization and industrialization problems.The lag also makes the city’s anti-risk ability insufficient.Since entering the new era,the Yellow River Basin has become a strategic support belt for ecological protection and high-quality development in China,and its status as an ecological barrier in the northern region has become increasingly prominent.How to improve the urban resilience in the basin to resist internal and external dominant interference and potential threats,and minimize the negative impact of various unfavorable factors,has important practical significance for the sustainable development of the Yellow River basin.This study takes the urban resilience of the Yellow River Basin as the research object,and uses the entropy method,exploratory spatial data analysis and geographic detector model to measure the resilience index of 67 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2019,and explore its temporal evolution law and spatial distribution,pattern and correlation,and try to explore the influencing factors of urban resilience.The results show that:First,from 2011 to 2019,the urban resilience of the Yellow River Basin rose amid fluctuations,but it was still at a medium-low level overall,and the urban resilience index showed a “W”-shaped dynamic development during the study period.The resilience of each subsystem is volatile and hierarchical,and the overall pattern is “economic resilience>social resilience>ecological resilience>infrastructure resilience”.The overall resilience and subsystem resilience of the upper,middle and lower cities have improved,and the overall difference in urban resilience has been narrowing,with prominent multi-level differentiation.Second,the urban resilience development in the Yellow River Basin is spatially centered on regional central cities,showing obvious regional differences.The overall resilience has a positive spatial autocorrelation in the regional space.The "high-high" agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula and Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos urban agglomeration,and the "low-low" agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the southern and southwest of the Yellow River Basin.The urban resilience is high in the east and west,low in the middle,high in the north,low in the south.Third,the influencing factors of urban resilience in the Yellow River Basin mainly include economic,financial,market,urbanization,opening and innovation.Compared with social and economic factors,natural factors have a low level of significance and lack of explanatory power.The driving effect of any combination of two factors on urban resilience is greater than that of a single factor,and the types of each interaction show nonlinear enhancement.In this regard,the study proposes targeted strategies for the improvement of economic resilience,social resilience,ecological resilience and infrastructure resilience,so as to ultimately realize the transformation of the overall resilience of the city and provide a reference for the construction of resilient cities. |
