Research On The Impact Of The Implementation Of Capacity Removal Policy On The Green Total Factor Productivity Of Industrial Industry

Since the reform and opening up,China’s cyclical and structural overcapacity has become increasingly prominent.The state has successively issued a series of policies and measures to resolve overcapacity,aiming to effectively resolve overcapacity through the joint action of the government and the market,to improve the industry’s total factor productivity.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China takes green development as one of the five development concepts,and the industrial industries with high energy consumption,high pollution and high emissions are the main breakthrough of green transformation.China’s industrial sector is facing the dual goals of capacity reduction and green transformation.Green total factor productivity brings energy and environmental constraints into the accounting framework and is an effective indicator to measure economic and environmental benefits.Therefore,based on the guidance on resolving the contradiction of overcapacity issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2013,combined with the data of 35 industries in China from 2005 to2018,this paper analyzes the current situation of green total factor productivity in the industrial sector,explores the impact of de capacity on green total factor productivity in the industrial sector,and provides empirical support for further promoting the green transformation and development of the industrial sector.The empirical research contents and main conclusions of the paper are as follows:First,calculate and analyze the dynamic change trend of green total factor productivity in industrial industry based on DDF-GML model.The green total factor productivity of industrial industries shows an upward trend,while the industries with overcapacity have experienced the evolution trend of differentiation.The second is to estimate the impact of de capacity on green total factor productivity of industrial industry based on double difference method.The results show that capacity removal has a positive effect on green total factor productivity.Improving innovation capability,upgrading factor endowment structure,and reducing the proportion of state-owned economy,enterprise pollution and debt ratio will help to improve green total factor productivity,while the impact of expanding opening to the outside world and introducing foreign direct investment is not obvious.Third,the dynamic effect test shows that the impact of de capacity on green total factor productivity has a time lag effect,and the policy effect is not significant in that year,but gradually increases significantly with time.The fourth is to test the impact mechanism and heterogeneity of de productivity based on intermediary effect and synthetic control method: de productivity mainly improves green total factor productivity through resource allocation effect and technological innovation effect,in which resource allocation effect plays a stronger role and technological innovation effect plays a weaker role;The effect of capacity removal varies from industry to industry.The coal,cement and flat glass industries have been shown in the current period,and the policy effect of steel and electrolytic aluminum has a time lag effect.Based on this,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestion:(1)Taking green total factor productivity as the evaluation index for the implementation of capacity removal policy;(2)The capacity removal policy needs to be promoted gradually and adjusted dynamically;(3)We can promote the growth of green total factor productivity by improving the efficiency of resource allocation and the level of technological innovation among industries;(4)Formulate differentiated industrial policies according to the current situation of overcapacity and industry characteristics in different industries.