Research On The Price Monitoring Of Chronic Disease Drugs In Shandong Province Under The Background Of Centralized Procurement

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposes to promote the construction of a healthy China,giving strategic priority to ensuring the people’s health,and improve people’s health promotion policies.During the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,the relevant departments of centralized procurement of drugs and equipment in Shandong Province actively implemented the relevant national policies on centralized procurement,aiming to ensure that people can use drugs with confidence and afford them.However,as the quality of life of the people gradually improves,the spectrum of diseases has also changed,and chronic diseases have become a key factor that threatens people’s health and increases the burden of diseases.Due to the close connection between drug prices and the burden of medication on the people,as well as the significant impact on the improvement of residents’health levels,and the long medication cycle and high medication costs of chronic diseases,the scientific application of statistical methods and machine learning algorithms for monitoring the price of chronic disease drugs is of great significance.Based on this background,this paper mainly implemented price monitoring research of chronic disease drugs in Shandong Province under the background of centralized procurement based on authoritative data such as Shandong centralized procurement Platform for drugs and National Bureau of Statistics.The main research contents are as follows:First of all,in order to accurately measure the changes in the price level of chronic disease drugs,this article selects two groups of drugs that are sold on the drug procurement platform every month to compile a chronic disease drug price index.The first group consists of 269 drugs with the same drug ID,which means the same dosage form,specifications,etc.The second group consists of 227 drugs with the same common name,which means they have the same active ingredients.The DDD values of the drugs in the second group are converted.Develop the chain Laspeyres price index and other price indices to analyze the fluctuation trend of chronic disease drug prices.The results show that the implementation effect of the government’s centralized drug procurement policy is significant,with a decrease in drug prices and medication costs,effectively reducing the drug burden of patients.Secondly,in view of the current lack of predictive research in drug price monitoring and the possibility of abnormal fluctuations in drug prices,this article conducts univariate time series analysis and prediction based on the developed chronic disease drug chain Laspeyres price index.The LSTM,bidirectional LSTM and Conv LSTM models are used to predict the price index,and the prediction effect is evaluated by RMSE,MAPE and MAE.Empirical analysis shows that the bidirectional LSTM and Conv LSTM models have better prediction accuracy than traditional LSTM models,better generalization ability and prediction stability,which are suitable for the monitoring of drug price fluctuations.Finally,in order to monitor the trend of drug price fluctuation in a more scientific way,this paper based on the chain Laspeyres price index of chronic diseases drugs compiled by drug ID,comprehensively considers its influencing factors,analyzes and predicts the influencing factors of price index changes.Through LASSO regression screening variables,LSSVR,GBRT,shallow BP neural network and deep neural network models are used to complete the prediction and analysis of the price index of chronic diseases drugs.The results show that the regression prediction effect of LASSO alone is the worst,and the R~2of LSSVR model and deep neural network model on the test set is greater than 98%,the values of RMSE,MAPE and MAE are also smaller than other models,they have better application value to price monitoring of chronic diseases drugs.