Prediction Of Ginger Price Based On Combination Model And Development Of Mobile Terminal

In recent years,the price of small agricultural products led by ginger fluctuates frequently,which greatly improves the production and operation risks of agricultural practitioners,damages the interests of consumers,and is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of ginger industry.Affected by multiple factors such as supply,demand,planting scale,hot money speculation,meteorology,pests and public opinion,it is difficult to grasp the law of ginger price change,and it is difficult for ginger practitioners to grasp its development trend,which brings great difficulties to practitioners' decision-making.Therefore,it is of great significance for the stable development of the industry to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of ginger price and to carry out the research on price trend prediction.Analyzing the influencing factors of ginger price,studying the fluctuation law of ginger price,and predicting the change trend of ginger price are helpful to the government's macro planning and adjustment of ginger industrial structure,the ginger practitioners' scientific decision-making,and the healthy and sustainable development of ginger industry.The main work includes:(1)Study on the fluctuation law and influencing factors of ginger priceThe law of price fluctuation and the analysis of price influencing factors are the basis of price forecasting model.Through the seasonal decomposition method of census X-12 and HP filter method to analyze the seasonal and periodic fluctuation of ginger price,the periodic and seasonal fluctuation of ginger price is significant,the peak of ginger price appears in September October every year,and the trough appears in January February next year.Based on the analysis of the influence of product supply and demand,government policy,diseases and pests,price level and other factors on the price fluctuation of ginger,this paper selects planting area,ginger output,import and export trade and other key factors to establish vector autoregressive model(VaR),and analyzes the influencing factors of ginger price variation from a quantitative perspective.Combined with the results of impulse response function analysis,it shows that planting area and output are opposite to ginger The fluctuation of ginger price has great influence.(2)Study on the prediction of ginger priceOn the basis of studying the fluctuation law of ginger price,further research on ginger price prediction is carried out.BP neural network and prophet prediction algorithm are selected to predict ginger price.The results show that the prediction performance of Prophet algorithm is better than that of BP neural network.On this basis,further integrate the advantages of SVM algorithm,build ginger price prediction model based on Prophet SVM combination model.Compared with the first mock exam,the combined model can better predict the price trend of ginger.(3)Research and development of ginger price visualization service system based on wechat appletThrough the field investigation and demand analysis of ginger price,the overall structure and functional modules of ginger price visualization system are designed.By using wechat applet,system development and visualization and other related technologies,the ginger price visualization service system based on wechat applet is developed,which can more intuitively and clearly show the change characteristics and trends of ginger price,and can be used for ginger industry Practitioners provide convenient and timely services.