Research On The Impact Of Life Expectancy Extension On The Upgrading Of My Country's Industrial Structur

With the continuous development of the economy,the level of medical and health services has been continuously improved,the continuous extension of life expectancy has become a trend.Faced with the extension of life,rational actors will adjust their various economic behaviors,and this individual level change will eventually have an impact on the macro-economy.More and more scholars at home and abroad begin to pay attention to the economic effect of longevity,but as a medium level of industrial structure,will the extension of life expectancy affect the upgrading of industrial structure?If so,what is the theoretical mechanism?To answer the above two questions,this paper studies life expectancy extension and industrial structure upgrading from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretically,this paper argues that life expectancy will affect the upgrading of industrial structure through both supply and demand.On the supply side,the channels of human capital can affect the upgrading of the industrial structure,and on the demand side,the channels of aging consumer demand can affect the upgrading of the industrial structure.In the empirical part,this paper constructs a multi-level industrial structure upgrading index based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2020 in China.First,the fixed effect model was used and benchmark regression was performed on it.Then the heterogeneity and robustness analysis of life expectancy on industrial structure upgrading are investigated to clarify the relationship between the two.Finally,the mediating effect model is used to test the mechanism of life expectancy influencing industrial structure upgrading.It is found that,for the national sample,the extension of life expectancy promotes the upgrading of the overall industrial structure and the internal structure of manufacturing industry.However,for the service industry,the extension of life expectancy promotes the proportion of service industry in the overall industrial structure,but it is not conducive to the upgrading of its internal structure.In terms of regions,life expectancy has a positive effect on the overall industrial structure and the internal structure of manufacturing industry in the western region,and inhibits the internal upgrading of service industry;however,it only promotes the overall industrial structure upgrading in the central and eastern region,and has no significant effect on the technical structure upgrading of the secondary and tertiary industries.At the same time,the impact of life expectancy on the upgrading of the overall industrial structure in the central and eastern regions is more significant than that in the western regions.The mediating effect test results show the increase in life expectancy promotes the upgrading of the overall industrial structure and manufacturing structure through two aspects,namely human capital accumulation and aging demand;and inhibit the upgrading of service industry structure through aging consumption demand.