| In recent decades,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly,and China’s economic development has also benefited from the prosperity of the real estate industry to a great extent.However,the negative impact is that house prices are rising too fast.Take Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen and other first-tier cities for examples,in the process of rising housing prices,on the one hand,the cost of land and factory buildings required by enterprises for production has increased,and the profit margin of enterprises has been compressed;On the other hand,the continuous rise of house prices will also increase the living cost of residents,leading enterprises to pay more wages and housing subsidies to employees,so as to alleviate the living pressure of labor force,which will increase the employment cost of enterprises,forcing many labor-intensive industries to withdraw from areas with high house prices or move to areas with low house prices and low labor costs;At the same time,labor mobility and economic growth brought about by rising house prices will also induce changes in industrial structure.It can be seen that there is a close relationship between the change of house price and the upgrading of urban industrial structure.Then,under the background of the state’s emphasis on "no speculation in housing" and high-quality development,how does house price affect the upgrading of industrial structure? Is this kind of influence big? Is it positive or negative for social and economic development?To discuss and answer these questions is the main purpose of this paper.Firstly,this paper collates and analyzes the relevant literature at home and abroad,and then in the theoretical research stage,it mainly explains the connotation and influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading,analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of house price changes on industrial structure upgrading,and puts forward the research hypothesis of this paper.Then,it studies the current situation of China’s housing price change and industrial structure upgrading.Firstly,it investigates the basic situation of China’s housing price change as a whole,analyzes and summarizes the process and current situation of China’s industrial structure upgrading,sorts out the indicators of rationalization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure,and comprehensively measures the two indicators by entropy method,so as to calculate the comprehensive index of industrial structure upgrading,and investigates the basic relationship between China’s housing price and industrial structure upgrading.Then,through empirical research,this paper analyzes how house price changes affect the upgrading of industrial structure.According to China Real Estate Yearbook and China Real Estate Statistical Yearbook in recent 15 years,this paper sorts out the panel data of average price of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2006 to 2020 as explanatory variable,and selects the comprehensive index of industrial structure upgrading as explanatory variable.At the same time,other variables that may have an effect on the upgrading of industrial structure are selected as control variables,and the two-way fixed effect model is applied to carry out full sample benchmark regression.The overall impact of house price on the upgrading of industrial structure is analyzed,and the explanatory variable is the ratio of house price to income for robustness test.Then,the urban land price is used as a tool variable to deal with endogenous problems.Then,the intermediary effect model is used to further verify the impact of house price change on the upgrading of industrial structure through labor flow mechanism,wage level mechanism and economic growth mechanism.Finally,the samples are classified to test whether there is heterogeneity.Finally,in the part of research conclusion and policy suggestions,the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the research results,mainly to guide the rational and orderly flow of labor force;Carry out rational division of labor among industries and give full play to the comparative advantages of various regions;Formulate a reasonable salary incentive system;Cultivate new economic growth points;Promote technological innovation,etc.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows,firstly,on the whole,according to the benchmark regression results of the whole sample,the rising house price has a certain promoting effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;Secondly,this paper assumes that the change of house price will affect the upgrading of industrial structure through three intermediary mechanisms,including labor mobility,wage level and economic growth,and tests this mechanism with the intermediary effect model.The results show that all three intermediary mechanisms are established.Thirdly,by testing samples from different regions,it is found that in the eastern and central regions,rising house prices have improved the comprehensive index of industrial structure upgrading,but the results of empirical research in the western region are not significant,indicating that rising house prices have promoted industrial structure upgrading in the eastern and central regions,but the western region does not have such a conclusion.The samples of cities with different scales were tested,and it was found that the rising house prices promoted the upgrading of industrial structure in both big cities and small and medium-sized cities. |
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